One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

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Stuart Rothenberg: Is Forbes headed for a win in Virginia's 4th?

By Stuart Rothenberg

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Unless the Democrats can turn around the race in Virginia's 4th Congressional District by boosting African-American turnout, Republican state Sen. Randy Forbes will be the winner of Tuesday's special election.

While state Sen. Louise Lucas and her allies have tried to use national Democratic issues such as HMO reform and Social Security privatization against Forbes, the Republican apparently has made headway portraying the African-American Democrat as a liberal.

Republicans have hammered away at Lucas, charging that she has supported higher taxes, voted against legislation intended to require that an American flag is displayed in every classroom and been soft on crime.

"I have a hard time understanding why someone who is so opposed to displaying our most sacred symbol of patriotism would want to join one of our government's most patriotic institutions," said Rep. Saxby Chambliss, R-Georgia, who was campaigning on Forbes's behalf.

Democrats who are watching the race closely compare Forbes's campaign to the one used by George Bush against Michael Dukakis in 1988, when the Republican used a number of symbolic issues to define his opponent as too liberal.

Democrats had hoped to portray Lucas as a moderate who would represent the district much as the late Democratic Rep. Norman Sisisky did. Sisisky's son Mark, who was encouraged by Democratic insiders to make the race but decided against it, has campaigned with her and stressed that Lucas shares the same values that his father did.

Though Lucas promised to continue the late congressman's legacy, Forbes's campaign -- with help from his GOP allies -- has successfully painted Lucas liberal on everything from taxes to values.

"Norm Sisisky was a moderate Democrat. We couldn't allow them to make her into another Norm Sisisky," says one GOP insider about his party's strategy.

More than six in ten voters in the district are white, and there is scant evidence that Lucas is getting enough of their votes to win. The Democrat will sweep black voters in the special election, but that won't be enough to keep Lucas competitive unless black turnout is much larger than Democrats assume it will be.

Turnout remains the one uncertainty in the race, and it is the Democrats' only hope. While blacks constitute 38 percent of the district's population, they probably constitute a bit less of the potential electorate. And some district-watchers expect that African-Americans will constitute an even smaller percentage of actual voters on Tuesday, possibly somewhere between 25 percent and 30 percent. If that happens, Lucas could lose badly.

Assuming that she draws at least one-quarter of the white vote, Lucas needs blacks to constitute 33 to 35 perccent of special election voters to have a decent chance of winning. But there are some indications that she may draw only one in five white voters, which would mean blacks would have to constitute 40 percent of all voters -- more than their percentage of the district's population -- for her to have any chance of winning.

Republicans remain nervous, however. They point to record black participation levels in some Southern states in 1998. In parts of Georgia, Maryland and North Carolina, African American turnout increased markedly that year. And Republicans haven't forgotten Florida's presidential vote outcome, which drew almost unanimous condemnation from African-Americans.

But while 4th District voters have supported white Democrats like Sen. Chuck Robb, Bill Clinton and Sisisky, they seem unlikely to vote for an African-American woman who has been effectively portrayed as liberal. Lucas certainly has a fighting chance, but it is also becoming increasingly obvious that a Democratic victory would be something of an upset.