One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

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Stuart Rothenberg: Senate recruiting update

By Stuart Rothenberg

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Republicans got their top targets in the Iowa and Minnesota Senate races, while the Democrats successfully wooed a top-tier candidate in the Arkansas Senate race.

But both parties have also had their Senate recruiting disappointments, and they still have work to do in key states.

The GOP is still hunting for the right candidate in Montana, South Dakota and Georgia. North Carolina remains confused, since Sen. Jesse Helms (R) has dawdled about announcing whether he'll seek another term. The same goes for Tennessee, where Sen. Fred Thompson (R) seems as uninterested as ever in his job.

In Missouri, Republican insiders think they have a strong contender, but again, they are waiting for an announcement. And in New Jersey, state Republicans have spent more time fretting over this year's race for governor than focusing on the 2002 Senate race.

On the Democratic side, the party is down to a sixth tier contender in South Carolina, has lost the candidates it really wanted in North Carolina, and is awaiting an announcement in New Hampshire.

Maine Democrats are uniting behind a candidate, while in Colorado the best potential candidate has taken a pass and the Democrats may well turn to the same candidate who lost five years ago. In Kentucky, the Democrats seem to have rallied behind a candidate who has little chance of winning a supposedly competitive race. Oregon remains a huge question mark.

The list of potential candidates who have passed on the Senate grows daily. For the Republicans, it includes former governor Marc Racicot (Montana), Reps. Jo Ann Emerson (Missouri) and Kenny Hulshof (also, Missouri). Rep. John Thune has always been the GOP's top target in South Dakota, but he seemed to reject their pleas in favor of the gubernatorial race. Recently, rumors from the congressman's office persist that he might be flirting with the Senate race.

But the Republicans haven't lost top-tier candidates as much as they are waiting to see whether they can find credible challengers. In Georgia, for example, none of the members of the congressional delegation has yet made a move, but one of them could still jump in against Sen. Max Cleland (D).

In New Jersey, Garden State Republicans are waiting to see what happens with Sen. Robert Torricelli (D), who remains under an ethics cloud. Assuming he seeks re-election, the senator's future probably depends more on his own standing than on his opponent's.

The Democrats, with more opportunities, have also had more disappointments. In North Carolina, both Rep. Bobby Etheridge and former White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles flirted with running (either against Helms or in an open seat), but both passed. Actually, Bowles probably would have been a bad candidate, but Democratic strategists disagreed with that assessment and hoped that he would run. Interestingly, the Democrats may ultimately have a formidable nominee, but they now face a multi-candidate primary.

In South Carolina, the Democrats seem to be ending up with College of Charleston President Alex Sanders. Some in the Palmetto State promise he'll be a tough opponent for Lindsey Graham, the likely GOP nominee, but Sanders is the nominee only because Darla Moore, John Palms, Hayne Hipp, Phil Lader and most of the state's Democrats took a pass.

In Colorado, Rep. Mark Udall (D) passed on the Senate race, as did Denver Mayor Wellington Webb. Again, I never regarded Webb as the best Democratic contender, but Udall probably would have been. Attorney Tom Strickland, who lost five years ago, would be a decent nominee who certainly could win. But he's not as formidable as Udall.

For now, the Democrats' cycle seems to be riding on decisions by two governors, New Hampshire's Jeanne Shaheen and Oregon's John Kitzhaber. Shaheen is expected to make a Senate race, while Kitzhaber probably is less likely to do so.

But elections ultimately are decided not by the candidates who don't run but by the ones who do. Potential retirements could prove disastrous for the GOP. But until those happen -- if they ever take place -- both parties will have six to eight of their Senate seats that look vulnerable.