One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

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Stuart Rothenberg: Races of the week

By Stuart Rothenberg

MASSACHUSETTS: 9th District special election

Despite a hostile Boston media, potential candidates are not shying away from a congressional bid to fill the seat of the late Rep. Joe Moakley (D), who died earlier this year. Moakley's seat is reliably Democratic, so it is no surprise that most of the attention is in the September 11th Democratic primary. The special election will take place on October 16th.

Max Kennedy (D), son of the late Sen. Robert Kennedy (D-New York), was expected to be the favorite in the race, but he dropped out after doubts grew about his abilities and reports surfaced about youthful behavior. Kennedy's exit made state Sen. Stephen Lynch of South Boston the front-runner. But newspaper reports about his defaulting on student loans, an arrest record and other improprieties have clearly damaged his campaign.

Joining Lynch in the race initially were fellow state Sens. Brian A. Joyce, who represents the suburban areas of the district, and Marc Pacheco, a Taunton legislator. Joyce has raised close to half a million dollars, while Lynch has raised more than $220,000.

Recently, state Sen. Cheryl Jacques announced that she would also jump into the race. Jacques, who had initially planned to run for lieutenant governor, immediately becomes the favorite of liberals in the race. A pro-choice, openly gay state legislator who takes reliably "progressive" stands on the issues, Jacques causes problems for Joyce, a recent convert to the pro-choice position on abortion. Both EMILY's List and the Human Rights Campaign Fund quickly endorsed Jacques.

Jacques's entry may well help Lynch, who remains the sole pro-lifer in the primary and could benefit from another candidate to his left.

A July 18th debate was surprisingly uncombative. Jacques and Joyce said that they would not march in South Boston's St. Patrick's Day parade unless gay groups were allowed the march. Lynch and Pacheco said they would vote to ban flag-burning, while the other two candidates said flag-burning was a free speech issue.

It remains to be seen if Lynch can weather out the reports on his past and if his poll numbers continue to drop. The election should hinge on turnout, with Lynch's South Boston voting base being one of the most reliable.

COLORADO: Senate

While Colorado Democrats lost their top two choices for the Senate race against Sen. Wayne Allard (R), they are left with a credible candidate who could still give the freshman Republican trouble. And in a year when their party will be defending 20 of the 34 seats up for election, the last thing Republicans need is another incumbent GOP senator with a real race.

After considering a challenge to Allard, Rep. Mark Udall (D) ultimately decided to seek re-election to the House. Then, Denver Mayor Wellington Webb (D) ended months of speculation by announcing that he too had decided against challenging Allard.

While Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter and former Gary Hart staffer Tom Hoog have been mentioned as possibilities for the Democratic nomination, most party insiders believe that former U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland is the favorite for the party's Senate nomination.

An Allard-Strickland race would be a re-match of their 1996 contest, won 51%-46% by the Republican. Recent polls have shown Strickland within five points of Allard, even pulling even according to a Denver Post poll. Interestingly, Strickland's name identification is slightly higher than Allard's, probably in part because of his role in the Columbine aftermath.

In 1996, Strickland tried to portray Allard as an extremist conservative, but Allard called into question Strickland's environmental record and special interests while working as a lawyer.

While Democrats hope that Allard's conservative record will give Strickland more ammunition, Republicans insist the race will be a yawner. They argue that Allard has already defeated Strickland once, and there is no reason for a re-match to produce a different result.

An unopposed Democratic primary definitely helps Strickland, and national Democratic money will flow into the race if their nominee runs a strong, competitive race. But Democrats know full well that Colorado has been trending Republican recently and any incumbent will be hard to beat.