Expert says Russians in 'a listening mode'

Former U.S. State Department official Tobi Gati

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld touched down in Moscow on Sunday, kicking off a week that may prove pivotal to the future of the Bush administration's missile defense program, the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, and U.S.-Russian relations. Former State Department official Tobi Gati joined CNN's Kyra Phillips and David Ensor on Sunday to discuss Rumsfeld's visit and the changing relationship between the two countries.

PHILLIPS: Conversations with Russia have basically been about [missile defense]. But does this meeting need to go outside of the box and address other issues?

GATI: The discussions will first have to focus on what is missile defense. The Russians, I don't think, got a clear sense when they were in Washington talking to American officials about exactly what system we intend to build. I don't think they have a clear sense about the number of offensive weapons we'd be willing to cut. So they are in a listening mode.

MORE STORIES Rumsfeld in Russia to discuss ABM treaty     EXTRA INFORMATION Document: Text of ABM treaty     RESOURCES Interactive: Missile defense in action   Message Board: Missile defense system   Interactive: How the system would work

But I think eventually it will be impossible to convince the Russians that getting out of the ABM treaty is a good idea. It may be possible to convince them that it's inevitable and to convince them that they ought to get something for it -- some price -- NATO enlargement, for example. Maybe go slow, you could even go outside the box and say a better economic relationship or even something as far out as debt rescheduling.

PHILLIPS: You mention economic relationship. It is a hard time for Russia right now, economically. Can anything really, truly be negotiated with an economy the way it is right now in Russia?

GATI: Russia has started to make the changes that are required to encourage investment, but governments, especially the U.S. government, cannot make companies invest in Russia, obviously.

Commerce Secretary [Don Evans] and Secretary of the Treasury Paul O'Neill were in Russia and made a good start -- in whatever you can do in two days of discussions -- to encourage business to take another look at Russia.

But what Russia really will have to do over the long term is get its house in order. And the issue that does concern us and the Germans is debt rescheduling.

ENSOR: I'm just wondering, Tobi, what you think, whether it is realistic … that the U.S. might offer -- to have the Russians involved somehow, technologically, working on the radar systems or whatever, for some kind of a missile defense. Get them in. Would that perhaps be something that the U.S. could offer that might cause the Russians to feel differently about missile defense?

GATI: I think there are some things the U.S., of course, can offer. But while we're talking about going beyond the Cold War relationship, which is possible and I hope can be realized over time, the Russians are quite aware that the people they're talking to want to get out of treaties which, for them, are the cornerstone of stability. And many of them are the same people who were in administrations during the Cold War.

So I think it's possible to move beyond, but let's remember that President Reagan also offered to share Star Wars technology and that didn't go very far. Those of us who know something about technology sharing, even with allies, know how difficult it is for Americans to give out what really are the crown jewels of our technology to countries that are friends, much less those that are to put it in its best terms potential friends.