Poll: Bush approval still high despite surplus estimates

Bush's approval rating is holding steady at 55 percent

By Keating Holland
CNN Polling Director

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Nearly three quarters of the public believes that the decrease in the federal budget surplus is a serious problem, while 72 percent believe President Bush is responsible for the declining surplus, according to results of a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday.

But Bush's approval ratings have remained steady in the past week, and the Democrats have not yet made any headway against the GOP on the budget issue. One reason: most Americans also think the Democrats in Congress are at least somewhat responsible for the drop in the federal surplus.

The new poll consists of interviews with 814 adults Americans, conducted between August 24 and August 26.

A majority of the respondents forecasts the return of the federal deficit in the next year.

The country is split evenly over which party would do a better job handling the federal budget. Democrats have a large advantage on health care and Social Security and a smaller edge on education. Nonetheless, only a bare majority say that the policies of the Democratic leaders in Congress would move the country in the right direction -- virtually the same number who feel that way about the GOP leaders in Congress.

Next year's midterm elections may turn out to be good news for incumbents of both parties, with fewer than a third of all Americans saying their member of Congress does not deserve re-election.

The story is worse for President Bush. Despite a solid 55% approval rating, only 46% say he deserves re-election; nearly as many say he does not. It's worth noting that the first time CNN asked the same question about Bill Clinton, in January of 1994, only 40% said he deserved to be re-elected, yet he went on to an easy win over Bob Dole two years later.

QUESTION: Do you think the decrease in the budget surplus is a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not very serious, or not a serious problem at all?

QUESTION: As you may know, the federal government currently has a budget surplus, which means the government takes in more money than it spends. Recent reports indicate that the size of the federal budget surplus has decreased by more than $100 billion since April of this year. Please tell me whether you think each of the following is -- very responsible, somewhat responsible, not very responsible, or not responsible at all -- for the decrease in the budget surplus. (A) George W. Bush (B) The Republicans in Congress (C) The Democrats in Congress.

QUESTION: Do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party would do a better job of dealing with each of the following issues and problems?

QUESTION: What do you think is more likely to happen to the federal budget by next year -- the government will have a budget surplus, or the government will have a budget deficit?

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

QUESTION: Please tell me whether you think each of the following political office-holders deserves to be re-elected. (A) President Bush (B) The U.S. representative in your congressional district (C) Most members of Congress

QUESTION: Do you think the policies being proposed by the Republican leaders in the U.S. House and Democratic leaders in the U.S. House and Senate would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?

QUESTION: Do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party would do a better job of dealing with each of the following issues and problems? (A) Education (B) Energy (C) The federal budget (D) Health care policy (E) National defense (F) Social Security