Independent streak could help Reno, analyst says

MacManus

(CNN) -- Former Attorney General Janet Reno is expected to take the first steps toward a Democratic challenge to Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in 2002. The Miami native served as district attorney there before being tapped by President Clinton to lead the Justice Department in 1993.

Susan MacManus, a professor of political science at the University of South Florida, discussed the prospect of a Reno candidacy Monday with CNN's Joie Chen.

CHEN: It does seem, Susan, that she's entering this with an awful lot of political baggage.

MACMANUS: Well, Joie, a lot of Floridians -- particularly Democrats -- are worried that she could easily win the primary, because she's very popular with Democratic voters in South Florida, where most of the primary voters are, but then lose to Jeb Bush in the general election. I think that's a major concern.

CHEN: We'll talk about baggage. In fact, we've got a question from our Web chat audience about it. Jim Weeks is asking: "How will Reno try and overcome the events surrounding Elian Gonzalez?"

MACMANUS: Well, actually, inside of Florida, the Elian Gonzalez story and the Waco story are not the baggage to Reno that it is perceived to be outside of the state. After all, the Elian Gonzalez people -- or those concerned with that issue -- and people concerned with Waco are not likely to be Democratic voters to begin with. So I don't think that that's as big of an issue in our state as is Reno's health.

CHEN: What about Waco, though? I mean, that's another element that we on the national scene look at as being sort of a critical moment in Ms. Reno's career as attorney general.

MACMANUS: Yes, but the people who are very upset about Waco are very conservative voters. They're not likely to be enticed to vote for a Democratic candidate for governor in Florida. So again, it's more of an issue of interest to people outside the state of Florida than it is to Floridians -- and it's not likely to be as big a factor as some other things when she runs against Jeb Bush, if she gets the nomination.

CHEN: Susan, here's a question from the Web chat audience now. Mary Spanoudakis: "Why doesn't Janet just announce if she's going to run?" This is always the great mystery about politicians or politicians in the making, I guess: Why don't they just say, here's what I'm going to do and I'm going to do it tomorrow?

MACMANUS: Americans love intrigue, and Janet Reno knows that. After all, there's been no more political intrigue than the Reno candidacy since the election 2000 recount. She's a very polished politician. She understands that by eking things out and keeping people's interest alive that she generates front page of all the papers and television news stories.

CHEN: Location, location, of course, is so important in Florida real estate: apparently, also in Florida politics as well. Janet Reno, as everyone has said, has a lot of support in South Florida. (Former U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam) Pete Peterson, if he gets in the race, seems to be an important figure for North Florida. I guess that leaves the mucky middle there?

MACMANUS: Well, what the problem for a South Florida candidate is that Democrats, in analyzing the Gore loss in election 2000, point to North Florida as the main reason that they lost the state. And they were way behind their projections to try and carry Florida. So a South Florida candidate doesn't help much to repair that kind of shortfall that Democratic operatives especially think you need a Central Florida or North Florida candidate to do.

CHEN: Susan, another question from the live Web chat audience. Daniel Yount: "What does Reno think of the recent polls that show her 15 percent behind Jeb?"

MACMANUS: Well, actually, this is one of the defining things about Janet Reno. She doesn't care about the polls, and she's banking on the fact that there are a lot of Floridians who would like a politician who doesn't simply put her finger up to the wind and look at polls and decide whether to run or not. It's her independent streak that she thinks will be the most compelling reason for people who haven't been interested in politics before to take a look at her as a candidate for governor.