One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

Stuart Rothenberg: GOP Senate Outlook Gets A Boost

By Stuart Rothenberg

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- I don't know if it's just chance or the result of a dash of patriotism, but the Republicans just had a terrific week in their fight to hold their own in next year's U.S. Senate elections.

Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson's decision to seek another term, combined with decisions by Gov. John Kitzhaber (D-Oregon) and former Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman (D) not to run for the Senate, have quietly given the Republicans a triple play just when everyone's attention has been on the World Trade Center, President George W. Bush and Afghanistan.

Thompson, a Republican who has served one full term and part of another, was widely expected not to seek reelection next year. The attorney-turned-actor-turned politician has raised little money and taken few steps to seek another term. Thompson, who backed Sen. John McCain's presidential effort last year, hasn't always been excited about his job, and his refusal to talk about his reelection plans seemed to confirm speculation that he would retire. But instead, he announced this week that he'll seek another term.

Democrats have made it clear for months that Thompson would be nearly invulnerable were he to run again, so his announcement removes from contention a Senate seat that Democrats anticipated would be highly competitive.

The other big announcement took place in Oregon, where Gov. Kitzhaber squashed speculation that he would challenge Sen. Gordon Smith (R) next year.

Kitzhaber, a doctor who served in the state House and the Senate before winning election as governor, had acknowledged that he was considering the race. But the two-term governor, who is term-limited and cannot seek another term, has never had a bad case of Potomac fever. Still, some Democrats thought that Kitzhaber was leaning toward a challenge to Smith

Kitzhaber's decision increases the likelihood that either Sec. of State Bill Bradbury and/or Rep. Peter DeFazio will seek the Democratic Senate nomination. DeFazio ran for his party's Senate nomination in 1996 in a special election, losing a primary to now-Senator Ron Wyden.

The congressman, who represents all or parts of seven counties in western Oregon (including Eugene), is a pugnacious liberal Democrat. He would be a credible Senate candidate, but wouldn't have anything close to Kitzhaber's appeal or potential.

The decision by Glickman is significant but less dramatic, even though a poll suggested that he could be a formidable opponent for Sen. Pat Roberts (R). Frankly, most observers doubted that Glickman, a former Kansas congressman who was defeated in 1994 in his bid for reelection, would run for the Senate. But without Glickman, Democrats find themselves starting back at square one in a state that has proven to be reliably Republican.

Some Democrats see the decisions by Kitzhaber and Glickman as following from the nation's war footing and President Bush's popularity. Thompson apparently was also persuaded to run again by recent events.

The developments in Tennessee, Oregon and Kansas come just a couple of weeks after Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Texas) announced his retirement and Elizabeth Dole (R) let it be known that she would run for the Senate from North Carolina.

Gramm's retirement gives the Democrats at least some shot to pick up his seat, but the Republicans begin favored to retain it. Dole's entry and the Democrats' lack of a heavyweight in the race to replacing retiring Sen. Jesse Helms (R) also give the GOP an edge in North Carolina.

While all of these decisions don't suggest that the Republicans are poised to regain the Senate, they do appear to limit the GOP's down side risk, increasing the pressure on Democrats to hold onto their existing Senate seats.