One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

Stuart Rothenberg: Bush has reason to celebrate his first year

By Stuart Rothenberg

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Just four months ago, the Bush administration seemed poised for a major fall. The Republican agenda looked thin, and a sinking economy was dragging down President George W. Bush's popularity. But as 2001 comes to an end, the president not only has a series of legislative achievements, he has also shown public relations savvy in dealing with the economy.

After a year on the job, the president has demonstrated a skill that often served him well in Austin: the ability to claim victory after legislators have hammered out a difficult compromise, no matter what Bush's position when the debate began.

Bush overcame considerable odds to get a substantial tax cut. He claimed victory after Congress passed an airline safety bill. He applauded when the House and Senate agreed to an education bill. He cheered -- and breathed a sigh of relief -- when the House passed the trade promotion authority bill and sent it to the Senate. And he has somehow turned likely political defeat on an economic stimulus bill into a clear advantage.

Obviously, in all of these cases I just cited, the final product wasn't always what the White House initially preferred. The president wanted school vouchers, and a larger tax cut than Congress enacted. And he didn't want to make airport baggage screeners federal employees, but accepted a final bill that generally did so. In each instance, he put down his marker but took what he could get.

In many of these cases, the president has taken hits from both ends of the ideological spectrum. While Democrats have complained repeatedly that Bush won't compromise, some conservatives have whined that the president has "caved" too quickly on key issues, (especially on the education proposal). In fact, Bush has been ideological in his approach to issues but also pragmatic when it comes to signing legislation that has worked its way through Congress.

Obviously, the president's popularity -- and reputation -- have been boosted by his reaction to the events of September 11. Bush, who often seemed ill-at-ease talking about foreign policy, has received rave reviews for his war on terrorism, and for the way he wove together an international coalition. This is no small success for a president who, only six months ago, was held in relatively low regard for his positions on global warming, missile defense and multilateral peacekeeping.

More recently, Bush has shown Clinton-like sensitivity about the economy. Unlike his father, the current President Bush didn't deny the economic downturn. Instead, he has pushed his economic stimulus package and painted Senate Democrats into a corner, especially after the House passed a package. It's the Democrats, says the president, who have been blocking his plan to revive the economy.

Of course, President Bush has benefited so far from the fact that many Americans blame the recession either on Bill Clinton or Osama bid Laden.

But if Bush is getting high marks for his recent performance in office, he has had his share of stumbles. He mangled the issue of the environment, and he contributed to a serious strain in relations with America's allies until September's events changed international dynamics.

The president's stratospheric job approval ratings should not obscure the fact that considerable challenges await him over the next year. The economy remains an albatross for him politically, and it is a problem over which he has relatively little control. Sooner or later, the public will blame President Bush for high unemployment.

When American attention turns away from terrorism and back to domestic priorities, the president's job numbers will fall back to normal. The country is still very divided over priorities and values, and the Bush will be faced with tough calls on health care, prescription drugs, farm policy, the environment, minimum wage and an overall government spending.

The president benefited from low expectations during much of his first year. But after a job approval of 90 percent, 2001 will be a tough act to follow. The president still has formidable domestic adversaries in Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle and House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, and the level of the international threat to the United States remains unknown. That's reason enough for the president to keep his celebration modest.