One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

Stuart Rothenberg: Democrats look to 2002 to re-take the Senate

By Stuart Rothenberg/CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- "One is the loneliest number" proclaimed the pop song of a couple of decades ago, but it's a magic number to Senate Democrats. That's because Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-South Dakota, can become the majority leader in 2003 if his party nets even a single seat in the 2002 elections.

With 20 Republican and only 14 Democratic Senate seats up next year, the Democrats have more opportunities to gain seats. (Last cycle, the Republicans defended 19 seats to the Democrats' 14, and the GOP ended up losing a net of four seats.) To retain the Senate, the Republicans will either have to keep virtually all of their seats or knock off a couple of Democratic incumbents.

Once again, most incumbents who seek re-election will win another term. With voters not yet panicking about the economy or angry at one of the political parties, incumbent officeholders begin with a clear advantage.

Retirements are likely to be a major factor, as they usually are. At the beginning of this cycle, two Democrats, Minnesota's Paul Wellstone and Michigan's Carl Levin, still hadn't decided whether to seek re-election. But Democratic insiders insist that all of their incumbents are now prepared to run again. Wellstone, who pledged not to seek a third term, has already announced he'll run, provoking anger from U.S. Term Limits, an outspoken interest group.

In contrast, one GOP incumbent, South Carolina's Strom Thurmond, is sure to retire, and others, including North Carolina's Jesse Helms and Tennessee's Fred Thompson, are undecided about whether to seek another term.

Both parties have a handful of incumbents who appear particularly vulnerable. New Hampshire Republican Bob Smith trails Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in early polling, and GOP insiders believe a primary challenge to him is very possible.

Arkansas Republican Tim Hutchinson is also vulnerable, and a number of Democrats are considering the race. Maine's Susan Collins and Colorado's Wayne Allard also seem to be top Democratic targets, though their vulnerability depends to some extent on Democratic recruiting.

Iowa Democrat Tom Harkin is certain to face a tough test now that Republican Rep. Greg Ganske is preparing to challenge the senator. Three other Democrats, Montana's Max Baucus, South Dakota's Tim Johnson and Louisiana's Mary Landrieu, could also have problems getting re-elected, depending on the quality of their opponents.

And all eyes are sure to be on Jean Carnahan, who was picked by the governor of Missouri to fill her late husband's Senate seat until 2002, when state voters choose someone to fill the remaining four years of the late Mel Carnahan's term.

Essentially untested during a campaign in which voters expressed their admiration for her late husband, Mrs. Carnahan has an opportunity to show that she deserves to be elected in her own right. Republicans would love to knock her off, but they'll need to find a strong candidate.

The current Senate deadlock -- 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats -- gives Republicans an extra reason to worry about the health of Thurmond and Helms, who haven't been in the best of health over the past few years. If either of their seats becomes open before November of 2002, the governor would appoint a replacement to fill the remainder of the term. And in both North and South Carolina, the governor is a Democrat.

Both parties will spend the next six to eight months looking for top-tier challengers. The results, plus the public's reaction to the Bush presidency, will likely determine whether the Republicans will retain their majority or whether George Bush will face a hostile Senate in the second two years of his term.

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The United States Senate

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