Maria Ressa on the Philippines' political institutions on trial

CNN's Maria Ressa is in Manila covering the political crisis facing President Joseph Estrada and the Philippines.

QUESTION: Where does the impeachment trial stand?

MARIA RESSA: The entire trial has been suspended, and that's part of the problem: no one knows what will happen next. Leaders of both camps have been meeting for the past two days, after the (Tuesday Senate tribunal) decision, to decide what their next step will be.

One of the places to look is the House of Representatives. What are they going to do -- be part of the impeachment process, or is it going to close down now?

This impeachment trial ... if Estrada had been acquitted could have vindicated him. Now the very body that could give him credibility has lost credibility. The ambiguity is playing out on streets and in the financial markets.

Q: What is your assessment of the nation's political and economic stability?

RESSA: It will not get better until the question of the impeachment trial and then the credibility of Estrada himself is settled. The worst thing that could happen is it (the economy) will continue to plunge. Analysts say it could continue to plunge. If the loss of confidence is reflected in markets then ... that could again add to the social instability.

3. Is this looking like a replay of the 1986 "People Power" movement that removed former dictator Ferdinand Marcos from power?

RESSA: It's too soon to tell, but certainly the massive number of street demonstrators is large. It is now a wait-and-see situation. If no action is taken by authorities, the number of protesters will grow.

There are differences, though, between 1986 and what is happening today. The first is that you don't have the military as a player. Now we have a military that is staying out of the conflict. Another difference is that in 1986 there was the feeling that you were fighting against a dictator, one that had been in power for 21 years. Today, the anger is against injustice, but the question is, can the protests continue?

A key to today's situation is if the markets continue to plunge, if job layoffs begin happening, you'll get idle people. But you're talking about a development that could go over days, maybe weeks.

Q: Are protests likely to grow or weaken as this weekend approaches?

RESSA: A key is if they (Estrada's political opponents) maintain this momentum. But that depends on actions taken by the government. If the public is angered, the opposition will ask for Estrada's resignation.

Q: What will be Estrada's response to the current crisis?

RESSA: He can stick to his claims of innocence, that he wants the impeachment process to continue and to fight to stay in office. The other option is for him to resign, but it doesn't seem to be an option. His allies say people want him in power.

The question is how Estrada can continue to stay in power without credibility. The impeachment process was a way to give him credibility. If he had been acquitted, he could gain political credibility. But now that process itself is in chaos. It's led to a major questioning of institutions of democracy in the Philippines.

Q: Who are Estrada's allies? Could that change?

One of the reasons he could stay in office is that the military has taken a neutral position. He still has his Cabinet together. One of the things we need to look at is whether there will be resignations.

Q: What is important to look for?

RESSA: The number of people on the streets, both for and against Estrada. If these two groups meet, the potential for violence is there, although it is small; the general mood of the demonstrations has been festive.

We also need to see what is going to be done with the impeachment trial. Will it go to House? It's important to note that the 11 prosecutors are members of the House of representatives. Then, focus will shift to Senate judges. I think this is a process that will take days to happen.

Third, Estrada's reaction is crucial. All of these factors play into the political system and the impeachment process. How can you have confidence in a solution that is in chaos right now?

Q: Does the current political crisis in the Philippines have regionwide implications?

RESSA: Well, certainly, in countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia and Taiwan, political leaders have come under fire. In the case of the Philippines and Indonesia, in particular, they're in the process of defining their democracy. Plus, they are revamping their economic systems.

Both the Philippines and Indonesia suffered from the Asian economic crisis, and have been recovering, economically. Certainly, economic progress cannot happen without political confidence.

Really, in both the Philippines and Indonesia, there is a sense of people trying to shape their political situations. I think Indonesia is looking at the Philippines, as (Indonesian President) Wahid faces his own political crisis. The potential for violence, though, is higher in Indonesia than in Philippines.