Location, location key to mobile Internet

Mobile Internet success requires new 'killer applications'

In this story: Logistics management Real story is in 2.5G network rollouts Beyond conventional Internet RELATED SITES

By CNN's Geoff Hiscock,
Asia business editor

SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- The success of mobile Internet will depend on its ability to devise its own "killer applications", according to a new technology forecast released Monday.

While mobile Internet has unlimited potential to change the face of business, it will not be able to rely on conventional Internet applications, the report says.

In particular it will have to overcome the limitations of small displays, limited storage, slow speed and the lack of a keyboard.

Technology Forecast 2001-2003, the twelfth annual technology survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers, says that successful applications will be those that make the most of the unique characteristics of a mobile environment.

Services which take account of where the user is located will be a key area of innovation. But these will also raise privacy implications that will lead to location-blocking options.

Logistics management

QUOTE "Mobile Internet is going to make it. Why isn't everybody already doing it? Operationalising the technology is the big issue. " - Fred Balboni, PWC Asia Pacific leader for IT and systems integration

PWC's Asia Pacific leader for IT and systems integration, Fred Balboni, told CNN that location-based applications could range from giving a user directions to a meeting place, to logistics management for trucking companies and taxi operators.

"Why isn't everybody already doing it? Operationalising the technology is the big issue," he said.

Balboni said mobile Internet was being hampered by software bugs, commercial issues such as billing sytems and recouping heavy investment in technology infrastructure, and the search for the killer application to drive demand.

But he said mobile Internet was "going to make it", noting that 2001 was the crossover year when globally there would be more mobile devices than fixed ones.

Real story is in 2.5G network rollouts

Balboni said that while most of the attention was being paid to third-generation (3G) mobile technologies and license auctions, the development of 2.5G networks over the next few years in reality was more important.

He said this was because "always-on" 2.5G technology, beginning with General Packet Radio Service (GPRS), essentially was an upgrade of the widely used GSM technology, and so could build on these existing networks.

Balboni said that Moore's Law (where chip processing speed doubles and cost halves every 18 months) would continue for the next 10 years. By 2014, there would be 25 billion transistors on a chip, compared with 25 million now.

Similarly, storage costs would continue to plummet. But the crucial areas of software development and integration were not able to match this speed of technological change.

Beyond conventional Internet

The PWC report says mobile Internet will also provide a critical channel for business to interact not just with customers, but with employees and partners as well.

A primary factor in adopting mobile Internet is the ability for users to take advantage of "idle time" while outside the home or office.

Balboni said there was a tremendous amount of innovation taking place around the mobile Internet, but successful applications would have to go beyond delivering the conventional Internet on a handheld device.

"This is particularly true in regions where business professionals and consumers already have widespread access to PCs," Balboni said.

The Technology Forecast notes that few wireless carriers plan to offer widespread 3G services in 2001-02

(Japan's NTT DoCoMo, the acknowledged leader in mobile Internet services among telcos, begins its 3G trial service in Tokyo and neighbouring cities from May 30, with full service not likely until October).

The forecast says that more than 95 percent of the world's cellular subscribers will still be using 2G and 2.5G technology at the end of 2003. The use of 2.5G will persist because of "the lack of compelling mobile applications" requiring the higher bandwidth that 3G offers.

PricewaterhouseCoopers

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