Gallup Poll's Frank Newport: Middle East, stem cells and soccer moms

Frank Newport is the Editor-in-Chief of the Gallup Poll and vice president of the Gallup Organization in Princeton, New Jersey. He is in charge of the Gallup Poll assessment of American public opinion, which has been continuously measuring public moods and attitudes in this country since the 1930's.

CNN: Good afternoon and welcome Frank Newport.

FRANK NEWPORT: Hello! Good to be with you again!

CNN: Is there support for U.S. involvement in the Mid East peace process?

NEWPORT: Surprisingly not. We gave people in our weekend poll a couple of choices about the U.S. role in the situation. Two-thirds of Americans chose the alternative that the U.S. should encourage the two sides to find a solution on their own, but should not take an active role. Only about a third said the US should be active in trying to find a solution. This is interesting, because Presidents like Jimmy Carter, and to some degree, Bill Clinton, were very active in trying to broker a peace. But it looks like the American public doesn't feel that that should be a high priority for the administration.

CHAT PARTICIPANT: Is it in the U.S. interest, politically and morally, to become deeply involved in the Middle East conflict?

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NEWPORT: Well, apparently not. As mentioned, the public apparently feels that it is not in the U.S. political interest to be actively involved. We didn't ask Americans directly why they feel this way, but we have found in the past a reluctance on the part of the U.S. public to advocate America getting deeply involved elsewhere around the world. There was even some hesitation initially, for example, about the U.S. involvement in the Persian Gulf War back in 1990 and 1991.

That's not to say that Americans don't have views on the situation in the Middle East. One of our most persistent findings over the years is that the American public tends to be more sympathetic to the Israelis than to the Palestinians. Still, our polling says that Americans want the U.S. to be more neutral in its involvement there, and, again, there's not a groundswell of enthusiasm for the U.S. to get heavily involved in trying to broker peace in that region.

CHAT PARTICIPANT: Is it possible Americans are afraid what would happen if Bush got involved?

NEWPORT: I'm not sure exactly what that question means. One could be afraid in the sense that it wouldn't work. Bill Clinton tried very hard to bring about peace, of course, but it would be hard to argue today that he was successful. If the question refers to domestic politics between lobbies for Israel versus lobbies for the Palestinians, then I don't have a direct answer. I don't know if Americans are thinking in those terms when they answer the question.

CHAT PARTICIPANT: Do Americans support or oppose continuation of financial and military aid to Israel?

NEWPORT: We have certainly found in the past that Americans support the continuation of financial aid to Israel. That of course has been the U.S. position for many years. As I said, additionally when we ask Americans to make a specific choice between Israel and the Palestinians, Israel wins overwhelmingly. I should point out, though, that quite a few Americans don't make a choice at all; but of those that do, sympathies are clearly more with Israel than the Palestinians.

We get the same kind of response when we ask Americans about their opinions of Israel and opinions of the Palestinian authority. Israel has much higher favorable ratings than does the Palestinian Authority. All of that simply underscores the fact that Americans certainly tend to be supportive of the type of relationship that the U.S. has had with Israel over the years. It's worth noting that only about 2% of Americans are Jewish themselves. So, you have large numbers of Americans with no particular religious or ethnic relationship to Israel, who are still supportive of

CNN: What do your polls show about opinions on stem cell research?

NEWPORT: Probably the most important finding from our weekend poll is significant support for President Bush's position on federal involvement in stem cell research. Sixty percent say they favor his decision as announced last Thursday, while 34 percent disapprove. More generally, our polling over the last month or so has shown support for the idea that the federal government fund stem cell research. So, even though critics have said that Bush was too limited in his position, it looks like to me that the public is interpreting the decision as, more generally, simply allowing research to go on, and that's why we're getting the positive reaction. In fact, it looks like those that disapprove of Bush's decision are most likely to say it's because he went too far, not because he didn't go far enough.

CHAT PARTICIPANT: Polls have favored Bush's decision on stem cell decision, but does the sample understand the issue enough to make an informed decision?

NEWPORT: Good question. We've been very involved in that aspect of this public policy issue. When we asked a question about stem cell research a few weeks ago, we gave Americans a third alternative, to the effect of "I don't know enough about it to have an opinion." Almost 60 percent of Americans chose that option. The New York Times and other media outlets made a lot out of the fact that Americans apparently didn't know a lot about the issue. I feel strongly that initial reactions to an issue like this are still very important, even if it is obvious that many of us don't fully understand the complexities involved. Indeed, I'm not sure many people at all in this country understand all the complexities, including our senators and congresspeople. But I do believe it's important to get a reaction from the public based on what they do know.

We're basically saying, based on what people have heard and read at this point in time, they favor stem cell research and what Bush proposed. One great advantage of polling, of course, is that we will continue to monitor reactions. If additional information becomes known, and the public finds out more about some of the down sides of the research, then presumably that will be evident in their overall reactions. But if as pollsters we waited around and only measured public opinion when we felt Americans were fully informed on every nuance of an issue, we would do no polling. There is a continuum out there, and we believe the mix of opinion that comes from Americans of all walks of life and levels of knowledge can be very important.

CHAT PARTICIPANT: Do you feel the Bush administration is much more reliant in using poll information in forming policy then the Clinton administration?

NEWPORT: Based on public statements, one would say no. The Clinton administration certainly gained the reputation for relying on polls, and I can't count the number of times that George W. Bush has said publicly that he doesn't rely on polls or focus groups. The fascinating reality is that presidents all the way back to Franklin Roosevelt have used polls.

A friend of mine who is a professor in Oregon is about to publish a book, where he documents how much all presidents looked at polls. I don't have any insight or knowledge on the degree to which the Bush administration is or is not relying on polls, but my personal position is that I hope they do. In a democracy, the idea that an elected representative of the people pays attention to the desires and wishes of the people makes perfect sense to me. I am biased, of course, but I would be more fearful of a president or senator who ignored the people totally, than I would of a president or senator who conscientiously tried to understand the public through the use of scientific polls.

CNN: Frank, do you have any final thoughts for us today?

NEWPORT: We hear a lot about soccer moms in politics. Lots of pundits and consultants talk about soccer moms as a hugely important group of voters whose preferences can determine elections. So, in the recent poll, we decided to find out how many soccer moms there really are out there. The answer is not many. Of course, only half of Americans are women, to begin with. Of those, a relatively small percent have children under 18, and of those, only 18 percent say that one of those children plays soccer. So, we're really down in our estimation to just five or six percent of the population that meet the specifications of being female, having children, and having at least one of those children playing soccer.

Of course, I think some people who use that term mean it to represent a broader class of suburban mothers, but sometimes it's useful to pinpoint exactly what it is we're talking about. One last point, as long as we're on this topic, the average parent of a child under 18 says they spend 4.3 hours a week driving those children around to organized activities. Having four children myself, I'd say that sounds about right.

CNN: Thanks for joining us today, Frank Newport!

NEWPORT: Good to be with you! I look forward to talking with you again soon.

Frank Newport joined CNN.com from Princeton, NJ. CNN provides a typist for him. The above is an edited transcript of the interview on Tuesday, August 14, 2001.