Microsoft's new licensing: token gesture?

(CNN) -- Forrester Research analyst Eric Scheirer was interviewed by CNN's Marsha Walton about the consumer implications of Microsoft's new licensing agreement with PC manufacturers.

CNN: How big a concession is this from Microsoft and why did they do it?

SCHEIRER: It's a rather small concession. What this is really about is Microsoft trying to send a message to the Justice Department and to the court -- which is going to be rehearing their antitrust case -- that they are "playing nice." That they are being responsive to the messages coming forward and that they are doing what they need to do to comply with the order. Because they know there are many battles on which this is being fought out so they're trying to make a statement where they can't do much damage to their business.

CNN: How might competitors take advantage of this new flexibility and new possibilities on the desktop?

SCHEIRER: Expect to see competitors moving in to contribute to the experience that a customer has when they first get a PC. This is where we'll really see how much openness Microsoft really has. It's entirely natural for AOL to want to make a highly branded AOL machine that, for instance, they would go to a PC OEM [original equipment manufacturer] and say, 'We're going to put the AOL label on the outside of the box, we're going to make AOL the first thing a consumer sees when they boot the PC and make it an "AOL experience" top to bottom.' (AOL Time Warner is the parent company of CNN.com.)

CNN: How much does the expected fall launch of XP, the new Windows operating system, have on this announcement by Microsoft?

SCHEIRER: Microsoft recognizes correctly that with Windows XP they will be under great scrutiny by the court. Because remember, when the breakup ruling was overturned, it was not for lack of cause or to say the facts were incorrect. It was much more about questions about the propriety of the judge who was involved in the case. So the order was remanded, meaning it has to be investigated again by the lower court. So in fact, while the Windows XP launch is going on there is going to be a lower court looking at this issue about bundling, about tying, and the benefit or harm to consumers anew and afresh.

CNN: What might happen next in this Microsoft court saga?

SCHEIRER: It is probably in Microsoft's best interest to settle. They really need to get out from under the trial. They need to be able to figure out what the next steps are in terms of making consumer plays go forward. They have a lot of irons in fire, the launch of XP, the launch of the Xbox, consumer services, and to be doing this under constant threats and scrutiny from the Justice Department is very, very difficult for them.