Users debate Linux future as Windows alternative

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By Todd R. Weiss

SAN FRANCISCO, California (IDG) -- What effects could outside forces, including the sluggish U.S. economy and user concerns about costly software licensing changes proposed by Microsoft Corp., have on the future of Linux?

Here on the second day of the LinuxWorld Conference & Expo, users say they're watching those issues carefully to see how their companies could be affected by a myriad of developments happening behind the scenes.

Some users said the ongoing economic doldrums could be a boon to a wider deployment of lower-cost or free Linux operating systems, at the expense of the dominant Windows OS from Microsoft. Others, however, said that traditional corporate IT mantras will continue to emphasize Windows over other options, even those that might save money.

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Even more influential than the economic downturn, said users, is a Linux corporate computing boom fueled potentially by Microsoft's costly new licensing models for the upcoming Windows XP operating system (see "Microsoft license changes anger IT managers," link below). That change could prompt established Microsoft customers to look for cheaper and less restrictive alternatives.

Sherman Boyd, a systems administrator at CLH International Inc. in Tempe, Ariz., said he's hearing more questions these days from corporate IT leaders about the upstart Linux OS and what it might offer to businesses.

"Their ears are open now," Boyd said. "They do listen, and they are evaluating it."

Smaller companies could be much more affected by Microsoft's XP licensing plan, which prevents a user from installing one copy of the OS on more than one machine, Boyd said. Even though the practice is illegal, many small companies, those with a couple of dozen or so users, continue to buy just one copy of Windows and install it on all of their machines to save money. If they try to move to the more feature-rich Windows XP, that strategy will no longer be possible, he said.

That's where Linux could come in, Boyd said.

"I can see Linux coming to the desktop for those people who can't afford [Windows]," he said. "As people are forced to be honest, they may look at a solution that may not be as polished as they like, but at least it's free."

David Faries, president and CEO of NeuralTech Business Information Inc., an information research firm in Bainbridge Island, Wash., said he sees potential for Linux to gain traction in business because of the savings it can bring to user companies. "It will get down to economics," he said.

But Stephen Hahn, vice president of research and development for Computing Energy Inc., a consulting business in Alameda, Calif., said he has seen no interest from any of his clients in switching to Linux to save IT dollars.

"For them, relationships are important" when dealing with major vendors including IBM, Oracle Corp. and others, he said. And since large Fortune 500 user companies tend to have long procurement cycles, they are less affected by cyclical economic downturns, he said.

"They're not going to shift technologies radically" because of inherent fears that they would then lack skilled IT staff to run the new systems, he said. "You bring in another system and you have to bring in more people."

Even so, Jay Crafton, a PC specialist at Group Athletica LLC in Indianapolis, a subsidiary of clothing and shoes manufacturer Reebok International, said his company does have real concerns about the effects of the licensing for Windows XP.

Crafton said he's at the conference to investigate alternatives for his company's 450 PC users in Indianapolis. In addition, the company has thousands of machines around the world with sales and marketing people.

"Linux is the one that if we decide to change, and it looks like they will,... they would go with," Crafton said.

Analyst Bill Claybrook at Aberdeen Group Inc. in Boston, said he sees the future of Linux tied to how it's marketed and supported by large IT vendors including IBM and Hewlett-Packard Co.

Though IT departments are paring expenses and looking for cheaper alternatives, "I don't see a wave of that happening" that directly benefits Linux, Claybrook said.

Still, he said, Microsoft licensing worries could play a role in the months ahead. "There are a lot of people who would like to find a way of getting out from under the thumb of Microsoft," Claybrook said.

Also at the conference Wednesday, Canadian software maker Corel Corp. ended more than a year of speculation by announcing it will spin off its Linux unit under the watch of a small startup, handing over the technologies behind its implementation of the open source operating system.

A newly-formed Ottawa, Canada-based company called Xandros Corp. signed a licensing agreement with Corel, which gives it access to Corel's Linux desktop operating system and related applications, the two companies said in a statement. Xandros will pay Corel $2 million in cash to use the operating system to create a line of desktop and server products. Representatives from both companies discussed the licensing partnership at a press conference here.

Xandros is licensing Corel's Linux technologies with $10 million in financing from Linux Global Partners, an investment firm that has its hands in a number of Linux desktop software startups. The New York-based firm's investment portfolio includes Ximian Inc., the maker of the GNOME desktop for Linux, and an open source project called GnuCash, which developed a financial software product for Linux.

The IDG News Service contributed to this report.