Economy, fuel prices may not stifle summer travel

Gasoline prices are expected to peak around Memorial Day, but travel industry officials say the rise won't slow summer travel plans for most Americans

By Helyn Trickey
CNN

(CNN) -- The economy may be sluggish and gas prices may be racing higher, but travel industry officials say the news won't slow summer travel plans for most Americans.

"Only a small minority of U.S. adult travelers is actually planning to cut back on travel this summer," said Suzanne Cook of the Travel Industry Association at the National Press Club in Washington.

Cook said 7 percent of travelers asked plan to travel less or not at all this summer because of concerns about the economy, while 14 percent say they'll cut back because of rising gas costs.

Sandra Hughes, the American Automobile Association's vice president, said "Americans may not be in a big spending mood, but they will be in the mood to travel.

TRAVELERS' WISH LIST Top 10 destinations travelers would most like to visit this summer: Florida 34% California 32% New York 12% Hawaii 12% Texas 10% Nevada 9% Colorado 9% Virginia 7% South Carolina 7% Washington, D.C. 6% Source: Travel Industry Association of America

RESOURCES AAA's forecast for Memorial Day travel TIA's findings about gas prices and summer travel President Bush's energy plan    PAYING THE PRICE Pump pricing: See how production costs affect the price of gasoline Oil production: Find out more about the world's top oil producers     MESSAGE BOARD Sound off about rising gas prices

"Last year we were talking about the high cost of fuel," she said, "and it didn't affect it (the travel industry). It shouldn't affect it too much this year either."

This year, nearly 28.5 million Americans are expected to drive 50 miles or more from home on Memorial Day weekend. That number surpasses last year's record of 28.4 million travelers, according to the AAA survey, which polled 1,300 people.

Another 5.7 million travelers are likely to go by plane, train or bus -- the same number as last Memorial Day holiday.

Gassing prices

Hughes predicted gasoline prices, which hover near a record $1.72 per gallon, will peak around Memorial Day and then plateau for the remainder of the season.

"I want to dispel the notion that gasoline will hit $3 a gallon. It won't," Hughes said.

She said that only California, in which the energy crisis has forced rolling blackouts, could see gasoline prices surge that high. But other areas, she said -- like Chicago and Milwaukee, Wisconsin -- could see gas prices hit the $2 mark this season.

"AAA has found in the past that people don't change travel plans just because gas prices go up," said company spokesperson Janie Graziani.

While prices at the pump may not make or break vacation plans for most summer sojourners, Graziani said fears of gas shortages can curb or change some people's vacation plans.

"People don't want to get far away from home if they fear they may not be able to get gas at their destination," she said.

Shorter stays, more money

While summer travel seems a thriving part of American life -- and an income base for many resort communities -- the ways people use their vacation time appears to have changed.

This year Americans are expected to stay away an average of 8.3 nights on their longest pleasure vacation

Instead of the traditional two-week getaways common more than a decade ago, Graziani says people today are choosing to take shorter trips and fewer of them. This trend began during the booming economic times in the 1990s, she says.

"Fewer and fewer people can afford (nowadays) to be gone for two weeks," she said. "They couldn't take time off from work."

While Americans stayed away an average of 10 nights last year on their longest pleasure trip, this year, the average person will stay, on average, only 8.3 nights. But budgeters beware: While vacationers spent an average per-person $965 on their primary vacations last year, this year the average is $1,172.

A quarter of all summer travelers are likely to head for a family reunion, and more than half (60 percent) probably will travel with their spouses. Almost 50 percent of all vacationers are expected to have children in tow.

Cruising for discounts

The prudent traveler can still find some good values out there, Hughes said. And the news is even sunnier if your idea of relaxation is an expanse of blue ocean and a giant cruise ship.

Hughes says the best values this season will be on cruise bookings, and those travelers seeking a Caribbean getaway should look for special savings in May and June.

Also, flights to Europe and accommodations there may be discounted as fewer travelers book international destinations -- travel industry officials say -- because of publicity over mad cow and foot-and-mouth disease.