Greg Lefevre: California power crisis far from over

Greg Lefevre

CNN San Francisco Bureau Chief Greg Lefevre is covering the state's energy shortage, which led to the issuing on Tuesday of a Stage 3 alert. It means Californians are using almost all of the state's available power and that rolling blackouts are possible. A Stage 3 alert is expected to be issued again on Wednesday.

Q: What happened on Tuesday?

LEFEVRE: In California, the California Independent System Operator (which controls the state's power grid) expected 32,000 megawatts of electricity use -- that's more than the state could provide. Shortly after the evening commute, ISO spokesman Patrick Dorinson said that customers in the state had only used 30,979 megawatts. That 4 percent-plus savings was due, Dorinson said, almost exclusively to "serious conservation" mostly in northern California.

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Dorinson added that at one point in the afternoon, electrical use was going down at a time when it should have been going up.

The state also saved 840 megawatts of power (one megawatt is enough to power about 1,000 homes for a day) by darkening businesses during so-called voluntary interruptible periods. These are businesses that are willing to go dark for an hour or hours at a time in trade for lower electrical rates at other times.

One company said that it went dark for more than three hours today and that while it appreciated the beneficial rates, this "payback" was hitting pretty hard.

Q: Are these voluntary interruptible periods new?

LEFEVRE: This has been in place beginning about four years ago, because the state was growing faster than the utility was able to provide electricity.

There has been no additional power generation added in about 10 years. In 1990, California generated about the same amount as now but it uses as much as a third to half again what it used then. The difference is made up in importing energy from other states in West.

What made the problem so bad this year, is the increase in California -- about 10 percent -- as well as Washington and Oregon, both which have seen tremendous growth in the last 10 years. Add to that a drier winter that has reduced water availability for hydroelectric plants that provide Washington and Oregon with electricity.

This week, California is importing electricity from Oregon and Washington during the day and at night sending electricity back to the Northwest so that the electricity systems there can conserve the water behind their dams.

Q: California officials are calling for conservation to help the state through the crisis. Are you seeing those efforts and is that a hard sell to Californians?

LEFEVRE: Yes to both. It is a very hard sell because many Californians are extremely doubtful that there is a power shortage in the West. A local TV station did a poll that half of Californians believe there is a shortage did a poll in which they found half of Californians believe there is a shortage, but a fourth believe that a shortage is manufactured or does not exist at all.

Nevertheless, you see subtle signs of conservation. On my way home, I drive through a short tunnel which is fully illuminated from end to end. Now half to two-thirds are off at any given time.

In my neighborhood at Christmas, folks used to "compete" for the brightest display of lights. We would joke that if one neighbor put up three strands, another would put up four. This year, fewer than half of my neighbors put up lights. Many of my neighbors said it was in part because of skyrocketing electricity rates. That might not be conservation for altruistic reasons but it is conservation nevertheless.

In my own home, I remember my father's admonition to turn off the lights when you leave the room. We have also installed motion-sensitive switches in several rooms that respond to your presence and extinguish after you leave.

In office buildings in downtown San Francisco, I see many floors that used to be illuminated all night long go dark by early evening.

Q: Is the worst over?

LEFEVRE: The ISO says by no means. This week, the ISO says there will be no additional generation coming on line for at least five more days. For example, the San Onofre nuclear power plant is southern California will shut down one of its units for refueling. That kind of shutdown is unavoidable.

The Stage 3 alert continued well into the night Tuesday even though the crisis had passed during the evening. In the morning on Wednesday, California will be in precisely the same predicament because of colder temperatures, not enough natural gas to power all the plants and not enough power plants to supply the power needed.

The ISO fully expects to declare another Stage 3 emergency Wednesday morning. That would mean that California is using more than 98 percent of the state's generating capacity. At that point, any additional surge in use in either the north or the south would drive the state over the limit and force rolling blackouts.

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Dynegy
PG&E Corporation
SoCal Edison
  • Deregulation - What this means to you - Electricity Market Issues
System Conditions - The California ISO
California Public Utilities Commission
California Utilities Emergency Association

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