Energy prices to remain volatile over summer

By From CNN's Brad Wright

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Don't expect much good news on the energy front this summer.

As supplies remain tight across the energy spectrum, gasoline prices are expected to rise about 9 cents this summer. Despite the rise, prices are still expected to be slightly below last summer's high of $1.53 a gallon, the U.S. Department of Energy said Friday.

"This summer we're expecting $1.49 a gallon," said Mark Rodekohr, Director of Energy Markets and Contingency for the Energy Information Agency, a division of the Energy Department. "We expect a very marginal decline in prices relative to last summer. So again, driving will be fairly expensive."

The average price now is about $1.40 per gallon.

But it won't be just driving that remains high-priced. Supplies of natural gas, used in power generation as well as home appliances, remain tight.

"Prices should be in the 4- to 5- to 6-dollar range (per 1,000 cubic feet) as compared to 1999 when they were in the 2- to 3-dollar range," Rodekohr said.

Turning on the air conditioning this summer won't be cheap, either.

Although demand for electricity this summer is projected to increase by 2.5 percent, that's less than the 3.2 percent increase last summer.

"Most regions are expected to meet demand without problems," Rodekohr said, "Unless we have hot spells."

Californians and others on the West Coast who had to endure rolling blackouts this winter should not expect things to get better this summer.

"On average," Rodekohr said, "over the last five years, between the first quarter and the third quarter which is the highest cooling month in California, demand goes up 18 percent. So if you have some problems in the first quarter, if nothing changes, you may have some problems in the third quarter in California."

California Gov. Gray Davis says conservation measures must be taken to reduce energy demand by 10 percent.

But conservation, especially where gasoline is concerned, is easier said than done.

"What are you going to do to change the efficiency of 150 million cars?" Rodekohr said. "The answer is, it's not going to be dramatic."

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