Andrea Koppel: What's at stake in U.S.-China talks

Andrea Koppel

Andrea Koppel is CNN's former Beijing bureau chief and current State Department correspondent. She is helping cover the meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials in Beijing concerning the midair collision of a U.S. EP-3 surveillance plane and a Chinese fighter jet. The United States hopes to negotiate the plane's return.

Q: When will the meeting begin and what expectations does the U.S. have for this meeting?

Koppel: The eight-member U.S. team is supposed to sit down with their Chinese Foreign Ministry and People's Liberation Army counterparts at 3 a.m. Wednesday, U.S. time. Because China is 12 hours ahead, it is already Wednesday morning there.

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The U.S. is not quite sure what to expect at the meeting. Chinese officials have reassured them that this would not be a yelling and shouting session; that there would be some constructive conversations. Of course, at the top of the U.S. agenda is the repair and retrieval of the EP-3 surveillance plane. Also, the U.S. wants assurance the Chinese will end the aggressive tactics that were exhibited on the day the midair collision occurred because the Bush administration has said that the surveillance flights on the eastern coast of China will not stop. In fact, sources have told CNN that these flights could resume as soon as the end of this week. The resumed flights would not be in the area where the recent mid-air collision took place, Hainan Island, but rather north of there in international air space where U.S. officials say that Chinese pilots have not been as aggressive as they are farther to the south.

Q: How are both countries reacting to their hard-liners and is there a sense that both sides need to find a way to acknowledge that both sides have their pride and get off square one?

Koppel: Both governments must deal with hard-line constituencies. Certainly, in the Chinese government, the tougher line comes from the People's Liberation Army. They will be present during the first meeting. Interestingly, it is the Foreign Ministry that will be leading the show over there in Beijing since the meetings are taking place at the Foreign Ministry. This seems to indicate that the more moderate, more political, if you will, within the Chinese government are going to handle things from here. The politicals tend to look at the U.S. and China through the optic of the trade relationship and the importance of keeping the relationship on an even keel.

Here in the United States, we may have an indicator of how things are shaking down right now. Sources have told CNN that the State and Defense departments will recommend to President Bush that the U.S. not sell Taiwan the most high level high-tech weapons systems we have. Taiwan had requested the Aegis guided missile destroyers. The Chinese have said that selling these destroyers is a red line that the U.S. must not cross. The fact that it appears a recommendation is going to President Bush not to go forward with the sale of these destroyers to Taiwan is certainly a positive indicator for the Chinese government that could lighten the atmosphere during this week's talks.

Q: Is there hope that they will be able to get beyond the surveillance plane issue?

Koppel: This is a very focused meeting. No one expects it to go beyond the surveillance flight and who was to blame for the mid-air collision. Having said that, the atmosphere of this meeting will likely be a pretty good signal where both sides want this relationship to go, and would also be a good indicator of where it is likely to go. If there is a very constructive attitude on the part of both the Chinese and the U.S., a sense that both sides realize they must have a "meeting of the minds" and resolve this issue, that bodes well for the relationship.

If the Chinese insist that these surveillance flights stop or perhaps warn the U.S. that if the flights continue, China will continue to challenge as aggressively as it have in the past. That certainly would not bode well for the relationship.

Q: What is it important for people to understand about the dynamics on both sides of the issue?

Koppel: I think on the Chinese side, what's important to keep in mind is that in the next year China is going to be going through its own "campaign season." In fact, some say that it has already begun. In two years, China's President Jiang Zemin is supposed to be stepping down, and he may give up other titles as well. Currently, he heads the Chinese Communist Party and the military.

Right now, Zemin is trying to figure out who will take his place. Depending upon how he is perceived to have dealt with the U.S. in this situation, it may influence whether his candidate is selected.

Up to now, Zemin has been somewhat more favorably disposed toward the United States than others within the core of China's leadership. If the U.S.-China relationship continues to sour, it will most likely help determine who will be the next leader of China.

One thing that people need to remember is that the Chinese leadership, like American political leaders, does have a constituency that it needs to address. It is difficult to see this if you have not been China or are not familiar with the Chinese government. Most people think in terms of the Chinese government being communist and authoritarian, which it is, but it also has a constituency.

In fact, the Chinese populace has had an increasingly larger voice in what happens in China, not in a political sense, but certainly when it comes to nationalism. There has been a rather vocal community, both on the Internet and within the Chinese media about the way this midair collision was handled and who is to blame.

Of course, the Chinese are saying that the U.S. is to blame, which the Chinese leadership must take into account, and is doing so in the way it is dealing with the U.S. It certainly affected the pace at which the standoff was handled and resolved.

On the U.S. side, this is a Republican White House. There are a number of senior Cabinet officials who are more hawkish in their perspective of China. There are a number of China skeptics on Capitol Hill who have very powerful voices as well.

So, while it appears at the moment that the Bush administration is trying to strike a somewhat moderate position with China by trying to both engage yet not back down on issues about which it feels strongly, the U.S.-China relationship is much more tenuous now than it was during the Clinton administration, which had a very clear policy of engaging China. The Bush administration has said it views China as a strategic competitor. The more bad blood between the countries, the more ammunition hard-liners inside and outside of the government will have to bolster their argument to treat China more as a foe than as a country that is a necessary interlocutor.

Congress considers China sanctions
April 17, 2001
Chinese pilot 'harassed' U.S. crew
April 14, 2001
Careful language breaks Washington-Beijing impasse
April 12, 2001

U.S. Navy factfile: The EP-3
U.S. Dept of Defense
White House

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