Major Garrett: U.S.-Mexico relations stronger than ever

Garrett

Mexican President Vicente Fox on Wednesday began an official state visit in the United States for talks with President Bush on many issues. CNN White House Correspondent Major Garrett takes a look at his agenda.

Q. Mexican President Fox strongly supports granting amnesty to Mexican nationals now in the United States illegally. But the White House has made it clear this is not under consideration. Why not?

A. In short, because it's politically unpopular in Congress and the country at large. Immigration is a complex issue, and immigration politics rank among the most brutal. The question is, who gets in and who doesn't? Politicians decide which immigrants, among millions from all over the world, get to enter the United States legally -- a great and most coveted prize.

The fight to be one of the prize winners is amazingly intense, and past winners are covetous of their countrymen waiting in line. Here's where amnesty runs into so much trouble: Illegal immigrants working in the United States from Mexico and other nations broke the rules. They jumped the line. Granting them blanket amnesty means telling millions of others waiting patiently in line that they're chumps.

Of course, the other side of the issue is that illegal workers are among the most daring, enterprising and hard-working of all immigrants, which is why they took the monumental legal and physical risks associated with illegal immigration. The horrific deaths in the Arizona and California deserts are grim testament to these risks. And, as President Fox said in his opening remarks at Wednesday's state visit, illegal Mexican immigrants are hard at work in America and contribute to its prosperity.

President Clinton sought amnesty for illegal immigrants from Mexico and neighboring nations and was shot down, mostly by Republicans. Those same Republicans have told President Bush "no" as well -- at least for now.

Many in Congress remember the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, which provided amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants in the hopes that such a move would freeze further illegal immigration. But it had the opposite effect -- other potential immigrants saw the amnesty and concluded, not illogically, that maybe it could be achieved again. Congress doesn't want to repeat what it now views as a mistake, and the White House is groping for something less than amnesty but something more than the status quo.

The White House is thinking of a guest worker system that might act as a bridge to permanent legal status, but nothing's been resolved. All both sides agree on right now is that it's a huge project and it's going to take a lot of time to resolve.

Q. In the past, Mexican leaders have chafed at U.S. criticism of their efforts to combat drug trafficking. How have Bush and Fox dealt with this tricky bilateral issue since they came to power?

A. Fox and his predecessor, Ernesto Zedillo, both asked the United States to end annual certification, a congressional requirement that the president "certify" each year that Mexico and other nations with large, illegal drug cartels operating within their borders are working to stem the flow of drugs into the United States. The president must cite specific examples of drug interdiction efforts.

Mexico has long considered this process intrusive and demeaning, a get-under-the-microscope kind of inspection of its law enforcement activities that the United States would never allow. But Congress has for years defended the process as a means of extracting cooperation in the drug war. Decertification can cost economic aid and lead to trade sanctions, something Mexico would like even less than certification.

Bush certified Mexico as cooperative on March 2, saying Mexico has made "significant accomplishment" in its anti-drug efforts. While this settles the issue for the year, Fox would still like to ditch certification, and some people in Congress are open to the idea.

If Fox continues to prove himself as a new type of leader in Mexico -- one capable of reforming a law enforcement system U.S. drug officials have long considered hopelessly corrupt -- the certification process may change. But it will take longer than Mexico would like.

Q. Do Fox administration officials expect that this high-profile visit to Washington will help the Mexican leader politically back home? What are some of the domestic political challenges he is facing?

A. Fox officials and Bush officials expect this state visit to pay short- and long-term benefits. Remember, Fox is a new leader. His election was an enormous, earth-shattering event in Mexico. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (known by its Spanish initials, PRI) had run Mexico as a one-party state since 1929. Fox's National Action Party (PAN) had always been the free-market, conservative also-ran to the PRI, a socialist party that held great sway over national and statewide elections.

Fox's victory toppled the PRI and gave Mexico newfound legitimacy on the world stage. Mexico's last PRI President, Ernesto Zedillo, deserves great credit for accepting Fox's victory and allowing the first-ever transition of presidential power to proceed smoothly. Even so, Fox still faces many PRI opponents in the Mexican Congress, and he must show results.

So far, those have been hard to achieve. An immigration deal with the United States, for example, would have been a big breakthrough. But that didn't happen at this state visit. Drugs and trade are and will always remain long-term issues.

What's left? Diplomatic symbolism, and the White House pulled out all the stops. His state visit has come with pomp and circumstance, plus an unprecedented joint meeting of the U.S. and Mexican Cabinets.

The Bush White House wants to confer prestige and gold-plated legitimacy on Fox, diplomatically and politically. Bush said the United States' relationship with Mexico was the most important in his entire international policy portfolio. That's a signal to Mexican voters that the United States sees Fox as an agent of change, one that will be dealt with frequently and seriously. That may be enough to paper over the inability to make big changes on issues such as immigration.

Q. President Bush made his first international visit to Mexico and made Fox the first international leader invited for a state visit at the White House. What are some of the diplomatic and political reasons he is giving such a high profile to the U.S.-Mexican relationship?

A. Bush wants to invest his political capital in Fox. He wants Fox to succeed. They are friends. They knew each other when they were governors. Bush knows how important it is to have a conservative, free-trade and non-socialist leader and party in control of Mexico.

Many issues can be attacked than were previously possible because, in essence, the two presidents speak the same political language and trust each other.

Bush also wants to seize the moment and bolster his standing with Hispanic voters in the United States. Fox is a very good means of achieving an "I'm-a-new-kind-of-Republican" credibility with these voters. Bush has made other moves in this regard. He was the first president to deliver a Saturday radio address in Spanish and the first to hold a Cinco De Mayo festival on the White House grounds. So Fox feeds into this domestic political strategy. This is not the only reason Fox received Bush's first invitation for a state visit, but it was part of the political equation.

Q. Bush and Fox knew each other before either became leader of their respective countries. What is the nature of their personal relationship?

A. Very friendly. Both are Harvard graduates. Both love their ranches. Both are free traders. Both have backgrounds in the corporate world -- Fox as an executive with Coca-Cola, Bush as owner of the Texas Rangers. They know each other and like each other. And, for political reasons, they need each other. Fox needs help from Bush to look like a serious world player and a major political figure. Bush needs Fox, though less urgently, as a means of proving his ability to transform U.S.-Mexico relations and win Hispanic voters in states other than Texas.

You can never underestimate the value of personal friendship, trust and commitment in politics. The Bush-Fox relationship can make things happen in the future because, at least based on what we know, it is one of the few relationships for either leader in which neither is looking over his shoulder, wondering about a double-cross or doing the agonizing political trigonometry of hidden motives. That's a plus in any political relationship and could prove most helpful in this one.