Meteorologist Orelon Sidney compares weather to stock market changes

CNN Meteorologist Orelon Sidney says the cold, snowy weather that many people in the United States are enduring is similar to a stock market correction after the warm trend of the last couple of years.

Q: Is the United States experiencing an unusually cold and snowy winter?

SIDNEY: Weather varies every year. After a couple of warm, mild winters, we're seeing a return to colder weather. And this colder weather, in and of itself, is unusually cold. So this winter looks more unusual than it really is because we've had two very warm winters.

The Year 2000, from the beginning through October, was the warmest period on record. So what's happening now is sort of like the stock market -- it goes one way for a while and then turns around and goes the other way. And when you look at it over hundreds of years, you get that average temperature. So, if you put it in stock market terms, we're seeing a correction, a weather correction.

This year the lake out around my subdivision froze over, and I've never seen that before. But I've only been in this world three decades, so that doesn't really mean a lot weather-wise. What we look for is the Earth's average temperature. And if that temperature starts to change over a long period of time, then you've got something to talk about -- such as global warming. But just a particular season or particular year, it could go either way.

Q: What kind of weather can we expect this week?

SIDNEY: For the next couple of days, we're going to see a warming trend across the nation. It's going to get much warmer in the Southeast and the Great Lakes and the Plains. Temperatures in the Southeast are going to be in the 50s by Friday -- about 20 degrees warmer than now. So definitely a warming trend will come in, and it's going to be fairly quiet because no major storm systems are going to be affecting the United States -- they're all going to be in Canada.

Q: What sort of trends can you predict for the rest of winter?

SIDNEY: I have no clue. Some people predict that far ahead, but I don't believe them. The Farmer's Almanac does one, and I think the weather service does a climatological outlook for 90 days. But I don't even look at them.

For one thing, it is really hard to predict long-term trends. But the trend this winter so far is for a very cold and active winter. And so my guess is, if the trend holds, it's probably going to continue to be cold. But this is where it gets dicey -- predicting whether winter will extend into March and April or whether temperatures will start moderating earlier. But that would just be guessing at this point; I really don't know. But it looks like it will be much colder, much stormier than we've seen in the previous few years, based on what has happened so far this season.

Q: Will all the snow help areas catch up with drought?

SIDNEY: It doesn't really, because about 10 inches (25 centimeters) of snow equals only an inch (2.5 centimeters) of rain. So it's obviously better than no precipitation, but not a lot. And some places in the northern regions are experiencing a snow drought -- they're not getting as much snow as they usually get. Any precipitation helps, but that 10-to-1 ratio means if you've got four inches (10 centimeters) of snow on the ground, you've only gotten about a quarter of an inch (.6 of a centimeter) of rain.

At this point, I think Atlanta is about 14 inches (36 centimeters) behind in rain, and there are other places that are even further behind. This is a trend that is continuing from several previous years -- it's been dry for several years. So obviously this is going to help, but it's not going to make a dent at this point.

Cold brings Southern discomfort as 2001 begins
January 1, 2001

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