John Zarrella: More hurricanes on the horizon

John Zarrella

Hurricane researchers say the evidence is now clear. A major climate shift has taken place which scientists say means a return to a period of increased numbers of major hurricanes. And they believe it means a very good likelihood a catastrophic hurricane will strike the United States, perhaps doubling the damage done by Hurricane Andrew. CNN's John Zarrella elaborates.

Q: What is the gist of this new research? Zarrella: Hurricane scientists at the federal government's Hurricane Research Division in Miami studied climate cycles, water temperatures and wind sheer. Looking back they found periods in historical records where for 20 to 40 years, the water warms in the Atlantic prime breeding ground for hurricanes. Since 1995, when this period of renewed hurricane activity began, they say, the water has been a half degree warmer than in the previous 30 years. That's all it takes they believe. They also found that during these periods there is also a decrease in wind sheer over the Atlantic. Less wind sheer and warmer water means they believe more hurricanes.

Q: Why is a climate shift taking place? Global warming? Zarrella: The climate shifts, the researchers say, are normal, periodic events. In the late 1800s these same conditions occurred. The great Galveston hurricane hit at the end of this period in 1900. From that point until the 1920s the tropics quieted. Then it turned active again from the '20s until the '60s during which New York was hit by the 1938 Yankee Clipper Hurricane. Florida and the Carolinas were hit repeatedly. The most powerful to ever strike the United States hit the Florida Keys in 1935. But the scientists say this is a normal cycling. Why it happens is not understood. But because it's a cycle, they don't believe this current event is related to global warming. Q: Is this cyclical, like the economy or El Nino, or is this unprecedented? Zarrella:It is cyclical. It's far from unprecedented. So it is like the economy or an El Nino. The difference there is that the economy doesn't effect hurricanes but El Nino events do! During El Nino years, when the waters in the Eastern Pacific warm, there are fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic. During La Nina years, when Pacific waters are cooler, there's generally increased hurricane activity.

Q: What areas of the world and the U.S. would be most affected? Zarrella:The entire United States coastline from Florida to the Northeast is, the scientists say, at increased risk. The Caribbean is also in the bull's-eye. While the United States has been lucky since 1995, the Caribbean has already seen the effects of the change. There have been numerous powerful hurricanes like Mitch, Lenny, Georges, Marilyn and Luis. The Gulf of Mexico is not, the scientists say affected by this climate change. Gulf storms will come and go for other reason unrelated to the shift in climate.

Q: Are Americans, or for that matter folks from other nations, ready to tackle this? Zarrella: No. The American Red Cross just concluded a study. They found that 60 percent of residents most at risk from hurricanes are concerned that they and they're families are at risk. But, only half of those have a hurricane evacuation plan or a disaster supply kit. The nation's emergency managers for the most part say, the United States is unprepared for a catastrophic hurricane event. Studies by the insurance industry indicate that a major hurricane hitting a major U.S. city could cause $20 to $50 billion in damage. And hurricane forecasters say that in worst case scenarios, thousands of people could die. The Caribbean and Central America is at even great risk for loss of life. It's already happened. Hurricane Mitch in October of 1998 killed at least eight to ten thousand people in Honduras.

Q: Do governments -- local, state and federal -- have the proper tools in place to react -- notification systems, building requirements, civil defense logistics? A: In the United States, emergency managers are very worried that there is insufficient sheltering available and evacuation routes and procedures are inadequate. Building codes are woefully lacking in nearly every place in the hurricane belt. But building codes remain an issue that always pit developers, builders vs. local and state officials. Putting all of it together, one emergency manager says that "it's the recipe for a disaster."