John Zarrella: U.S. could get hurricane 'beating'

John Zarrella

John Zarrella, CNN's Miami bureau chief, has watched storms come and go in the Caribbean since heading to Miami from Atlanta in 1983. His coverage included the devastating Hurricane Andrew in 1992. He talked with CNN.com about the current hurricane season, and what may be to come.

Q: This is supposed to be a worse than usual hurricane season. Two months into the season, why haven't we had more storms yet?

ZARRELLA: Actually, June and July are typically slow. In fact, looking back it's not unusual to have the first named storm of the season form after this date. Take 1992 for instance. Hurricane Andrew, the first named storm that season, didn't form until the 17th of August. It hit south Florida on the 24th.

Already this season, we've had two tropical storms form. And both of them hit the Gulf coast. Now that August is upon us, we are entering the real heart of hurricane season. If the experts are correct, we can expect a pretty active year. Dr. Bill Gray, perhaps the most notable hurricane forecaster, has updated his prediction for the season. It's a good news, bad news forecast.

The good news is, Gray didn't increase his number of expected storms. He's sticking with his June number of 12 named storms, seven of which he expects to become hurricanes. The bad news is, the number didn't go down. And, he also held fast with his prediction for three major hurricanes that will be Category 3 and above. Those are storms with sustained winds in excess of 115 miles per hour.

From the standpoint of hurricane damage, that's significant because 80 percent of the damage done by hurricanes is done by 20 percent of the storms and those storms are the big ones -- the category threes and up. Gray is also saying that there's an increased likelihood the U.S. East Coast will be hit by one of these major hurricanes.

Q: Should we be more concerned about the likelihood of more storms hitting the Atlantic Coast?

ZARRELLA: With the exception of the devastating Gulf storm Camille in 1969 that wiped out the Mississippi town of Pass Christian, the East Coast has been the target of the most severe storms. The Atlantic Coast, from Florida to the Carolinas, is considered the heart of the hurricane belt. Hurricane scientists are saying that we've entered a new era of increased hurricane activity. It began in 1995 and could last for the next 10 to 40 years. And again, if you look back at historical records, there are some very frightening, ominous figures.

Florida has the highest likelihood, historically, of getting hit by a major hurricane. But you would hardly expect that looking back at the past 40 years. From 1961 to 2000, there were two major hurricanes -- Betsy and Andrew -- that hit Florida's peninsula. During the period from 1921 to 1960, there were 14 major hurricanes to hit peninsular Florida. The hurricane forecasters are now saying we could be in for a repeat of that era.

Q: How do the experts explain the recent trend toward more storms each year, and are they in agreement that the trend will continue?

ZARRELLA: There is unprecedented agreement regarding the increased activity. Every hurricane forecaster and scientist we talk with says there's no doubt the cycle of more hurricanes has returned.

Gray's latest numbers, while not changing since June, do represent an above average season. In an average year, about nine storms form. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) scientists -- while they don't forecast numbers like Gray does -- say their seasonal forecast indicates more activity. Thursday, they plan to update that forecast. It's possible they could call for even greater activity than they first suspected but, it won't be less.

The hurricane experts say many factors are contributing to the return to a more active hurricane period. But basically, they believe it's just a periodic climate shift, which, in general, produces warmer waters over the Atlantic ocean and light winds -- both of which are required for hurricane development.

Q: What are the implications of the long-term forecasts for coastal residents?

ZARRELLA: Not good. Andrew was a $25 billion dollar hurricane. Any expert you talk with says it's just a matter of time before a large metropolitan area is struck by a major hurricane. Damage, the experts say, could easily hit $50 billion. And the number of lives lost could easily be in the hundreds.

The problem is this: The coastal population from Maine to Texas has nearly doubled during the past 30 years. Property values since 1970 have gone from $1.1 trillion to more than $6 trillion in that same area. More people, more property so now, a far greater risk for a major disaster. The experts have told us that the nation is not prepared for what's coming and neither are its citizens.