Chad Myers: Chantal expected to develop into hurricane

Chad Myers

Tropical Storm Chantal is building to hurricane strength as it marches toward the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea. CNN meteorologist Chad Myers takes a close look at what might be in store.

Q. What kind of path do you expect Chantal to take? Who's at risk? Will it mostly be over the water?

A. This is a fairly southern storm. Right now, Chantal's not expected to hit Puerto Rico or St. Croix, but rather go through Barbados, Martinique, possibly the Dominican Republic, and south of Cuba (by 8 a.m. Sunday morning). It could turn left or right -- we just don't know. The National Weather Service does say it will turn into hurricane by Friday afternoon.

Chantal will hit quite a few islands in the eastern and southern Caribbean. After that, it could head back over water to south of Puerto Rico by 600 miles, then Haiti. Then it gets tricky. It could hit land, possibly Cuba or Jamaica. It could go into Cancun, Mexico. It's hard to tell.

Q. Just how big is Chantal? How does Chantal fit into the earlier prediction of this season being an especially strong one?

A. This is a storm with winds at only 40 mph, and not forecasted to be a hurricane for another 24 to 48 hours. But because there's a lot of warm water, it probably will turn into a hurricane -- south of Haiti.

Q. I have a quote here from a hurricane specialist saying Chantal's forward-movement speed is twice the normal speed, and that because of the speed, it might not intensify as much as it would if it were moving slower. Is that true? And can you explain that further?

A. True. A hurricane likes to be vertically stacked. It likes to go vertically right into the atmosphere, up and down from the water into the sky. If the storm is going very fast, it's hard for it to build straight up. We do think Chantal will slow down and be more vertical from top to bottom. It's kind of like building a skyscraper when the ground is moving at 30 mph. It's hard to build a tall skyscraper when the ground is moving. It's easier to build one when the ground is static.

Q. Could it peter out?

A. No. I expect Chantal to be slowing down from its 26 mph speed south of Haiti and build toward Cozumel and Cancun, or maybe into Cuba. It still could affect the United States -- but that would be a week away.

Q. What do we need to know? What can you tell people on the islands in its path?

A. Right now, with the significant speed of the storm, it doesn't look to be a floodmaker because it's not going to sit there. It's more a windmaker or a wavemaker with wind moving at 40 mph and its forward speed at 26 mph. That adds to winds at 66 mph.

Anybody in the Gulf of Mexico or Florida should watch Chantal but not panic. It's impossible to predict where the storm will go, because it's still too early.