Politicians warn of Indonesia strife

In this story: Upheavel likely Second censure almost certain RELATED STORIES

JAKARTA, Indonesia -- Senior Indonesian politicians have warned President Abdurrahman Wahid he is unlikely to survive in office.

Wahid, who is battling for his political life after 17 months in office, on Wednesday answered parliament's censure over two financial scandals worth more than 6 million dollars.

While Wahid rejected the charges, politicians said he is unlikely to be saved from a second censure move late next month, which would take him further down the road towards impeachment.

"Almost without exception they (MPs) are dissatisfied with the response," said Kwik Kian Gie, deputy chairman of the powerful Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P).

The party is led by Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri.

It is widely thought she covets the top job if she can get it legally and without plunging the country deeper into crisis.

Upheavel likely

The comments by Kwik, who was Wahid's chief economics minister until he quit last August, follow warnings in the local media that Indonesia was set for more upheaval.

The Jakarta Post summed up the sentiment of many across the country. It said Wahid had either missed or chosen to ignore the point that he no longer had the support of most members of parliament.

"Once again, the country will be plunged into another period of uncertainty as the power struggle continues," it said.

The censure is the biggest threat to Wahid's rocky rule which has failed to pull Indonesia out of an economic rut and stop violent clashes between ethnic groups.

Wahid's future now rests largely with Megawati, whom he edged out in Indonesia's first contested presidential race in 1999.

But political analysts say there are growing concerns in the PDI-P that if Wahid were to step down before his term ends in 2004 -- many predict he will be out by August -- Megawati would inherit a poisoned prize.

The PDI-P has the largest block of seats in parliament but far from enough to form a government alone.

But Kwik said that for the sake of the country, battered by years of economic ruin and violence, Megawati should step in.

Second censure almost certain

Amien Rais, Wahid's most ferocious critic and head of the top legislative body, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), which would convene to consider impeachment, said the second censure was a foregone conclusion.

"There is no question about that. I believe 99 percent that the second censure will be issued by parliament," he told Reuters Television in an interview.

Rais, who engineered Wahid's rise only to turn against him, said he had urged Megawati not to hesitate in seeking the top job.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Instability in Indonesia

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