APEC: Jiang's last hurrah?

By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Senior China Analyst

(CNN) -- President Jiang Zemin will need a major breakthrough in his talks with United States counterpart George W. Bush to make up for diplomatic setbacks Beijing has incurred since the September 11 events.

Yet it has become increasingly clear that Bush, who will be in Shanghai for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings October 20-21, won't be giving much away.

Despite frantic diplomatic maneuvers, Beijing has been unable to prevent the U.S. from establishing a substantial foothold in Central Asia, China's northwestern backyard.

Under the all-embracing call for fighting terrorism, the Bush administration has also been able to firm up ties with Russia, with which Beijing concluded a quasi-alliance relationship just a couple of months ago.

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China's plight is illustrated by the near-obsolescence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), whose precursor, the Shanghai Five, was formed in 1996.

One of Jiang's major diplomatic coups, the SCO incorporates the six countries of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Given that a key SCO task is fighting terrorism, it should have been activated immediately after September 11.

However, the success of the U.S. and NATO in co-opting Russia, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in the anti-terrorist campaign has rendered the SCO almost irrelevant.

Moscow has been so enthusiastic in coming to the aid of the U.S. and NATO that Bush last week floated the idea of a new kind of strategic relationship with Moscow.

It was not until last Thursday that vice ministerial-level public security officials from the SCO met in Kyrgyzstan to discuss ways to tackle common concerns about terrorism and separatism.

Conspicuously absent from the conclave were representatives from Uzbekistan, which has alarmed Beijing by letting American soldiers use one of its air bases.

Quasi-military alliance

Beijing has also been unsuccessful in arresting the pro-U.S. tilt that Islamabad has manifested since September 11.

This is despite the fact that Beijing has sent several envoys to Pakistan to warn the administration of President Pervez Musharraf of the dangers of its new American policy.

These diplomats have reportedly reminded Islamabad of the quasi-military alliance between China and Pakistan -- and that only China, not the U.S., is in a position to provide Pakistan with the kind of military technology that can help it parry an "Indian threat."

Beijing's apparently decreasing clout with Russia, Pakistan and Central Asia has in turn exacerbated the Jiang leadership's fear that Washington is taking advantage of the battle against Osama bin Laden and the Taliban to consummate its anti-China "encirclement" policy.

Then there is APEC itself, which could be Jiang's last hurrah before stepping down from his most powerful post of Communist party general secretary in a year's time.

Preparations for the meeting of top officials from 21 nations and regions started early this year.

Superpower status

And almost from day one, Jiang ruled that Shanghai's APEC should be treated as a big diplomatic event, rather than one concerning foreign trade.

Jiang's confidante and vice-premier in charge of diplomacy Qian Qichen, was put in charge of the groundwork.

"Jiang's goal is to seek for China a role in diplomacy and trade that is commensurate with its status as a 'regional superpower'," said a source familiar with China's APEC preparations.

"Now, everything is being overshadowed by the anti-terrorism campaign -- and it is American rather than Chinese officials who will be setting the agenda."

Jiang, however, could yet save the day if he could break new ground with Bush in their long-awaited tete-a-tete.

Latest reports from Beijing and Shanghai say Jiang is set to propose a new kind of Sino-U.S. partnership at the mini-summit.

A Beijing source said it would be a partnership for constructing a new world order of peace and stability in the age of terrorism and counter-terrorism.

This special relationship could be interpreted as a variant of the "constructive strategic partnership" that was forged between Jiang and former president Bill Clinton in 1998.

"The new partnership will at the very least mean regular high-level bilateral consultations," the Beijing source said. "They will help both countries coordinate the fight against terrorism and avoid misunderstandings such as those surrounding the spy plane incident [of last April]."

Sensitive areas

He added that in return for China's contribution to the largely U.S.-led global anti-terrorist crusade, Beijing hoped the U.S. could accommodate Chinese sensitivities in the areas of Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet and human rights.

Washington has, however, repeatedly refused to recognize the implicit quid pro quo on Taiwan.

For example, in his speech last week marking the 90th anniversary of the 1911 Revolution, Jiang made a big pitch to Taiwan on peaceful reunification. He asked Taipei to "start dialogues and negotiations based on the principle of one China."

While Jiang hoped Washington might show some sign of approval for this largely moderate overture, the Bush administration has refused to be drawn.

However, the Chinese president is expected to press Bush harder on Taiwan at their Shanghai meeting.

Beijing is also moving aggressively on the Xinjiang front. It has in the past fortnight or so dispatched more troops -- including newly formed rapid response crack units -- to western Xinjiang.

The goal is to seal off the border with Afghanistan -- and more importantly, to launch a "strike hard" campaign against Uighur nationalists.

Splittist problem

Beijing has at the same time called on the international community, including Western countries, to join in the fight against "East Turkestan terrorism."

Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi said last week "several East Turkestan organizations" had been using violent tactics against the Chinese government.

Analysts say by using the new term "East Turkestan terrorism," Beijing wishes to play up the fact that the "splittist" problem posed by militant Uighurs in Xijiang is an international issue -- and that, like Islam extremism, it is a scourge that should be combated by the global community including the U.S.

However, while Washington has hinted it might display a more tolerant attitude toward Moscow's actions against the Chechnya rebels, it has kept mum on Xinjiang.

Analysts say it is most unlikely that Bush will accede to Beijing's demand that Washington disallows representatives of the pro-independence movements in Xinjiang and Tibet to raise funds or stage anti-Chinese protests on U.S. soil.

Perhaps the only area where Sino-U.S. relations have taken a step forward are regular consultations.

In the past fortnight, officials from both sides have conducted dialogues on issues ranging from fighting terrorism to human rights and arms proliferation.

While arriving in Shanghai on Monday, Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan said Jiang and Bush would discuss "substantive issues" and that the meeting would have "major significance" for improving bilateral ties.

The danger for Jiang, however, is that as Beijing-based commentator Huangpu Ru pointed out, Washington has "already acquired the moral legitimacy for acting as bona fide global cop."

Bush knows that China is in no position to put up obstacles to America's new crusade. Hence there is no need for Washington to make a sizeable concession.