Vote bodes ill for Australia's government

Australian voters are changing direction and possibly governments

DARWIN, Australia -- An election swing in Australia's isolated Northern Territory indicates the country's federal government is likely to face defeat later this year.

The nine-percent switch to Labor in the territory has shifted political ascendancy to the center-left party.

A win by Labor in the territory will not be confirmed until final postal votes are counted, but Labor needs a national swing of less than one percent to oust Prime Minister John Howard's coalition.

A loss of government in the territory by the Country Liberal Party (CLP), an offshoot of the federal Liberals, would be the third consecutive regional defeat this year for Australia's conservatives.

It would put Labor in power in six of Australia's eight states and territories.

Labor is also knocking at the door of federal government, neck-and-neck with Howard's five-year-old conservative coalition in opinion polls, ahead of a general election expected in November or December.

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Australia's voters are still smarting from tax changes, high petrol prices and free-market reforms, resented in rural areas.

"Just in terms of rhythm, it (the Northern Territory vote) is a boost for Labor, no doubt," John Warhurst, political analyst at the Australian National University, told Reuters on Sunday.

Federal Community Services Minister Larry Anthony presented the federal government view by describing the territory election as "very different from a federal election" and dominated by different issues.

Local issues

Prime Minister John Howard did not comment directly on the election result, but his spokesman said the election was fought on local issues, with few if any federal implications.

Labor's federal leader, Kim Beazley, described the result as a seismic shift in Australian politics.

"This year we have seen election after election in which the Liberal and National parties have been rejected," he told reporters on Sunday afternoon.

Warhurst said the election swing showed voters were considering alternatives to a tough stand by conservative governments on issues such as immigration and mandatory prison sentencing in the territory.

"I was simply stunned," territory Labor leader Clare Martin said on Australian Broadcasting Corp television on Sunday.

Too close to call

She said the territory result was still too close to call.

With 70 percent of the votes counted, on Sunday Labor had won 12 seats in the territory's 25-seat parliament, the CLP 10 seats, independents two seats, leaving one seat undecided.

Both independents have been critical of the past government. Labor needs 13 seats to form government. The conservative CLP has held government in the Northern Territory for the 27 years of the territory's self-rule.

Campaign issues in the Northern Territory, an area five times the size of Britain where crocodiles are said to outnumber people, are widely recognized as having little in common with national concerns about tax changes and globalization.