Australia's Labor loses the poll and the plot

By CNN's Grant Holloway

SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- The Australian Labor Party must go back to the policy drawing board after being banished to a third consecutive term in the political wilderness on Saturday night.

The Labor party is blaming the September 11 terrorist attacks, anthrax scares and the contentious issue of boat people arrivals for its defeat.

Leader Kim Beazley, who resigned his position after twice failing to lead Labor to victory, said Labor had "stared down the fog of war to reach the kitchen tables of Australia" but that the insecurity of the nation had been too great a hurdle overcome.

Prime Minister John Howard, campaigning on twin themes of national security and solid economic management, did have the natural advantage of incumbency, but in reality the Labor party has only itself to blame.

One of the key factors in Labor's defeat must surely have been its failure to differentiate itself from the government on national issues.

Whenever Labor seemed to be making good electoral headway by campaigning hard on domestic issues such as the state of the health and education systems and the unpopular goods and services tax, a boat load of asylum seekers would steal the ALP's thunder.

The decision to stand four-square behind the government's hard-line zero tolerance policy on asylum seekers gave the Labor party little room to manoeuvre when the issue threatened to backfire on Howard, as it did towards the end of last week.

More importantly, it alienated a key section of its support base -- young, well-educated urban dwellers -- who had misgivings about the government policy.

Many of those voters turned to the Green party who advocated a more humane and compassionate treatment of the boat people.

Triumph for Greens party

For the Greens, the election was a triumph with the poorly resourced party managing to double their national tally to around 5 percent of the vote and overtake the more established Democrat party as a genuine third force in Australian politics.

Labor's position on asylum seekers was aimed at holding onto its older, blue collar constituency who were threatening to turn to the coalition or the right wing, anti-immigration One Nation party.

In the event, it didn't work. Labor lost many of those voters anyway and succeeded in alienating the voters who would form the rump of its support in the future.

The threat from One Nation also failed to materialize with that party's vote all but collapsing as its supporters returned to the coalition fold.

Kim Beazley's Labor party took its biggest risk by not taking more risks.

Too cautious

Internal documents leaked to media a few weeks ago outlined a strategy whereby Labor was to present itself as the smallest target possible.

The Labor party would not oppose government positions on issues if that opposition risked incurring voter displeasure.

But with an electorate feeling spooked by September 11 and the war in Afghanistan, Labor's cautious approach proved disastrous.

The electorate was clearly disinclined to change their votes during this time of global insecurity, especially when the alternative offered little in the way of contrast.

Major revamp needed

With Beazley standing aside, the mantle of leadership seems destined to fall to his deputy Simon Crean, a former leader of Australia's peak trade union movement.

But even before the Labor caucus chooses its new leader, political analysts are talking of Crean as a temporary appointment only should he snare the top job.

The fact that Labor strategists were calling Labor's result an "exceptional effort" given the prevailing global circumstances speaks volumes for the need for a major revamp of the organization.

Clearly after Saturday's dismal performance, the Labor party needs radical rather than minor surgery if it is to be fit enough to genuinely take on and defeat a Peter Costello-led Liberal National coalition in the 2004 election.