Indonesian challenge for Howard's third term

By CNN's Grant Holloway

SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- Australian Prime Minister John Howard faces an uphill task to rebuild Australia's shaky relationship with northern neighbor Indonesia following his re-election.

During the election campaign Howard said he would seek an urgent meeting with Indonesia's president Megawati Sukarnoputri to discuss solutions to the issue of illegal immigration.

While Howard was able to manipulate the asylum seekers dilemma to his domestic political advantage, that approach has markedly increased diplomatic tensions between the two nations.

The Jakarta Post, in an editorial on the Australian election result, said: "John Howard's campaign, which has exploited fears and aroused xenophobic emotions, has created the perception among Asians that ultimately, Australians do not really feel that they are a part of this region."

Last week Indonesia's ambassador to Australia accused the Howard government of engaging in megaphone diplomacy, saying a new government would need to adopt a "less noisy diplomacy" if the damage was to be repaired.

And three leading international relations experts slammed the Howard government's performance saying official relations were "currently more fragile and less productive than at any time for several decades".

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While Howard Monday indicated he would be reshuffling his cabinet to replace three senior ministers who retired at this election, the key role of foreign minister is likely to remain held by Alexander Downer.

He will have his work cut out for him.

For Australia the illegal immigration issue is a pressing one, but for Indonesia, already beset by economic woes, violent separatist movements and huge problems with internal migration, the fate of the asylum seekers is less urgent.

Indonesia offered to host an international conference on people smuggling in Jakarta early next year in response to the tragic loss of 350 Australia-bound boat people in the Java Sea in October.

But Australia needs more immediate assistance in stemming the flow of illegal immigrants, the vast majority of whom use Indonesia as a staging post for the final, dangerous boat trip to Australia's outlying island territories.

The Howard government has adopted a zero-tolerance stance on asylum seekers since mid August when it prevented Norwegian freighter Tampa from unloading more than 400 rescued asylum seekers on Australian territory.

It was Howard's failure to consult with Indonesia before publicly declaring the Tampa's human cargo was "Indonesia and Norway's problem", that prompted the diplomatic deep freeze.

Unsustainable policy

Megawati, for her part, refused to return any subsequent telephone calls from Howard on the issue and pointedly refused to meet Howard for one-on-one discussions during the recent APEC summit in Shanghai, China.

Since the Tampa incident, more than 1,500 boat people have attempted a similar trip only to be turned away by Australian navy or customs vessels.

Those who could not be turned away have been transported to detention centers, built and funded by Australia, in the Pacific nations of Nauru and Papua New Guinea.

While the tough stance has proven an election winner for Howard in the short term, it is clearly an unsustainable policy.

Despite assurances from Howard that the numbers of asylum seekers entering the people-smuggling pipeline is slowing, few believe the flow will be stemmed significantly any time soon.

Few takers for Pacific solution

Howard has declared he will maintain the policy for as long as it takes to "break the spirit" of the people smugglers.

Overtures to other Pacific nations such as Fiji, Palau and Kiribati have been made, but as yet there have been no new signatories to Howard's so-called "Pacific solution".

In reality the sooner Howard and Downer can gain some assistance from Indonesia the sooner the issue becomes more manageable.

The Jakarta Post said in its editorial: "Canberra should not presume that it was Indonesia's duty to act as Australia's forward defense line" in stemming the flow of asylum seekers.

If that belief is the prevailing sentiment in Megawati's government -- and given that by international standards the illegal immigrant flow to Australia is a mere trickle -- then Howard can expect to be battling the people smugglers for many more months to come.

Whether he can do that, and simultaneously rebuild bridges with Indonesia, could be one of the greatest challenges of Howard's third term.