N Korea burns birthday candles at both ends

Kim Jong Il recognizes the need for reform in North Korea

By Mike Chinoy
Hong Kong Bureau Chief

HONG KONG, China -- Is Kim Jong Il "the supreme comrade of the revolution" or "the most liberal person in North Korea?"

As Pyongyang marks Kim's 59th birthday with a series of lavish celebrations this week, these sharply differing characterizations -- the first from the official Korean Central News Agency, (KCNA) the second from a South Korean cabinet minister -- cut to the heart of the dilemma facing North Korea.

Nearly seven years after succeeding his father, the late President Kim Il Sung, the younger Kim continues to preside over a country mired in economic crisis and plagued by massive food shortages.

To the surprise of many observers, though, Kim has not only consolidated his power but waged a successful diplomatic offensive to ease North Korea's international isolation, highlighted by last year's North-South summit and the Pyongyang visit of then-U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, as well as moves to open official ties with countries ranging from Australia to Italy.

"This opening has kept the lid from blowing off the North Korean pot," said one Seoul-based diplomat. "It has allowed some international assistance to take the edge off the famine."

In the long term, however, many analysts believe that for North Korea to reverse its decline, Kim Jong Il must begin a program of meaningful internal reform -- a step that carries substantial political risks.

Reform at a price

"The key question is -- can you reform the current system without endangering North Korean survival?" noted Lee Chong Min, a North Korea analyst at Seoul's Yonsei University.

"Under the current political structure, it's quite difficult for the North Korean system to change without repercussions, both within the hierarchy and within the society at large."

Yet in recent weeks there have been intriguing signs to suggest that Kim Jong Il may be serious about reform. On January 4, the Rodong Sinmun, the ruling party's official newspaper, quoted Kim as saying:

"Things are not what they used to be in the 1960s. So no one should follow the way people used to do things in the past. We must solve all problems through a new way of thinking."

Just days later, Kim began a week-long trip to China, where he toured the Shanghai Stock Exchange, visited a General Motors plant, and stopped briefly in the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, where China's earliest experiment with a market economy took place.

Significantly, North Korea's domestic radio service reported the trip in great detail -- a sign that Pyongyang may be preparing the groundwork among its own people for a version of Chinese-style reforms.

'Overall revival'

Similar themes have marked the key official pronouncements issued to mark Kim's birthday this week. In a speech on Thursday, North Korea's second most powerful figure, Marshal Jo Myong Rok, who made an historic visit to Washington last October, was quoted by the official Korean Central News Agency as saying 2001 would be "a year of an overall revival in building an economically powerful country."

And KCNA reported that Kim himself, visiting a factory and a power plant to give "on-the-spot guidance," praised the workers for "taking the lead in the drive for modernization."

Even if Kim Jong Il recognizes the need for reform, however, and is prepared to take political risks to initiate the process, he is likely to face major problems winning over hard-liners in the ruling hierarchy and explaining his moves to a deeply indoctrinated population.

According to one Pyongyang-based diplomat, "the big challenge for him will be to find a formula" to justify changing a system that official propaganda routinely describes as "paradise on earth."

"That means changing the entire world view that North Koreans have had for 50 years," said Yonsei University's Lee Chong Min. "Kim Jong Il has to remake himself. He has to make the party apparatchiks understand that the country's future lies in the era of globalization and openness.

"That is something that is going to be very difficult for a country as closed, as autarchic and as inward-looking as North Korea."

CNN Hong Kong Bureau Chief Mike Chinoy has visited North Korea 12 times.

North Korean leader believed to be in Beijing

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