Hashimoto emerges as Mori 'successor'

Ryutaro Hashimoto resigned as prime minister in 1998. Three years later he is back in the swing of Japanese politics.

By Nic Hopkins
CNN.com Writer

TOKYO, Japan (CNN) -- Former prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto is gaining popularity as a likely successor to Japan's present leader Yoshiro Mori.

With support for Mori at an all-time low and economic confidence in Japan plummeting, speculation has shifted from whether the ageing leader will go to how long it will be before he leaves office and who will replace him.

Hashimoto, the minister of administrative reform, resigned as prime minister in 1998. He had been forced to fall on his sword after the Liberal Democratic Party suffered at the hands of electors for leading Japan into a deep recession.

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But he returned to the center of Japan's splintered political stage in the first half of 2000 upon seizing the leadership of the LDP's largest faction in the wake of the death of former prime minister Keizo Obuchi.

Mori's ratings have plunged

He is now rated as the most likely successor to Mori, whose ratings have plunged in the wake of the recent collision between a U.S. submarine and a Japanese fishing boat and amid calls for financial reform to revitalize Japan's economy.

"It's certainly not too soon to speculate on a successor to Mori and I'd rate Hashimoto a 40 percent chance of taking the job," says Macquarie Bank chief economist Richard Gibbs.

"He's gained a lot of kudos in recent months, he's a fiscal consolidator -- which is what Japan needs. I understand he has growing support within the LDP."

But for Hashimoto to become prime minister the LDP would need to remove Mori first -- a process akin to cutting off its own head. "It might seem extreme, but it would allow the LDP to retain the balance of power," says Gibbs.

One of several possible successors

Observers say Hashimoto is one of three or four possible candidates for Japan's top job should Mori bow to pressure and resign.

Among the others are the foreign minister Yohei Kono, justice minister Masahiko Koumura, outspoken Mori supporter Junichiro Koizumi and LDP powerbroker Hiromu Nonaka.

Koizumi and Nonaka are the least similar, with the youthful Koizumi having gained a reputation as a reformer while 75-year-old Nonaka is an old-fashioned conservative politician.

Koizumi has figured in previous races for prime minister, and is the head of the LDP faction controlled by Mori.

Economics minister supports Mori

Seen as arrogant and gaffe-prone, Mori received a boost Tuesday from economics minister Taro Aso, who argued the government's plunging approval rating was not the fault of Mori alone.

"I think all of us, and not the prime minister alone, should share the responsibility for low support ratings," Aso said.

Analysts say the future of Mori hinges on whether the three-party coalition government feels it can maintain its grip on power in the Upper House elections in July.

The LDP holds 113 upper house seats and needs the Komeito Party, which holds 24 seats in the Upper House, to remain on side if it wants to control the Upper House.

'The LDP will have to listen'

"If the coalition partners think they can't win the election because of Mori they will push for him to go, and LDP will have to listen," says Gibbs.

A sooner deadline for the government is its self-imposed March 3 cut-off date to push through its budget. If it fails, it may have to issue a supplementary budget early in the new financial year, which in Japan starts on April 1.

"Failure to push the budget through could be the straw that breaks Mori's back," says Gibbs.

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