Struggling Japan unlikely to tackle U.S.-Asia strategy

Newly appointed U.S. envoy to Japan Howard Baker has a difficult task

In this story: Double-edged sword Economy drowns out agenda RELATED STORIES, SITES

TOKYO, Japan -- Concerns over power struggles and economic suffering has made it tough for Japan to respond to a United States policy that would put Asia at the center of America's security strategy.

"Japan is in a great transition and can't do much," said University of Tokyo political science professor Takashi Inoguchi.

"An internal political power struggle -- that's priority number one, and there is no priority two or three," he added.

Inoguchi is referring to backdoor dealings to find a replacement for beleaguered Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, and the key election for parliament's Upper House set for July.

In a sign of the emerging shift in America's security stance, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld last week outlined to Bush his intention to press for dramatic changes in military strategy with increased emphasis on Asia.

Bush has agreed with the thrust of Rumsfeld's emphasis on Asia as a key region, and stressed his intention to cement Japan's place as Washington's closest ally.

This policy would put pressure on newly appointed U.S. envoy to Tokyo, Howard Baker.

A veteran politician, Baker is expected to play an active role in "developing wide ranging cooperative relations between Japan and the United States in political, security as well as economic and cultural fields."

Double-edged sword

The U.S. decision to make such concerns an explicit key player of its policies, however, could be a double-edged sword for Japan.

"The 'good story' is there would be an opportunity to improve the bilateral (Japan-China) relationship, which has worsened for several years," said former Japanese diplomat Satoshi Morimoto.

"The 'bad story' would be greater China-Taiwan tensions," he said. "And if Sino-U.S. relations get tenser, we can't expect a breakthrough in terms of China's constructive cooperation to deal with North Korea, and that is not necessarily good for Japan."

An early test of Bush's stance toward China will come next month, when he decides whether to grant a request by Taiwan, seen by Beijing as a renegade province, for a major new arms package.

Japanese ruling politicians have become increasingly outspoken in voicing concerns about China's growing military might in the region. Still, Tokyo's diplomats still prefer a softer public line.

"China is our neighbor and while there are various concerns, they are proceeding along the path of reform and liberalization," said one Japanese diplomatic source.

"So what is important is to encourage them along that path as a member of international society," the source said. "For that, U.S.-Japan cooperation is vital."

For now, Tokyo seems to be content to sit and watch while Bush works. But Asian policy experts believe that Japan's silence could be a mistake.

"The Japanese government should say that we need a solid alliance with the United States, but at the same time we need a friendly China. And very threatening statements by the U.S. government may not be good," Inoguchi said.

"But the Japanese government's approach is to just keep quiet. I'm not sure that is the right approach," he added.

Economy drowns out agenda

Equally problematic is the fact that Japan's economic troubles are crowding security issues off the bilateral agenda.

"It will take more time to set the direction for security dialogue," the Japanese diplomatic source said. "What is taking precedence now is the economy."

Japanese politicians are scurrying to compile by early April their latest package of emergency steps aimed at rescuing the economy from more than a decade of stagnation.

But who will implement those steps remains unclear as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has yet to set an election to replace Mori as party president, hence the country's leader. Potential candidates have also refused to make clear their intentions.

Analysts say these concerns make Tokyo indifferent to grapple with such long-term issues as Washington's growing desire to see it assume a bigger burden for its own security and that of the region.

Reuters contributed to this report.

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