Japan ponders life without Mori

Mori is expected to step down in early April

In this story: Calls for open selection process Possible Choices RELATED STORIES

By CNN correspondent Rebecca MacKinnon

Yoshimasa Hayashi is worried. The 40-year old politician from Yamaguchi hopes to be re-elected to the upper house of Japan's Diet in late July.

But he fears that if his Liberal Democratic Party doesn't regain some of the popularity it has lost, the election could be tough. "We need strong leadership in the Prime Minister's house," he says.

Otherwise, his constituents may vote for a candidate from another party, or even an independent.

Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, his popularity in the single digits, is expected to step down sometime in early April. But he has not yet officially announced his intention to do so, and no other LDP politicians have officially announced their desire to replace him.

IN-DEPTH Mori's difficult decision   •  Q & A: Who will replace Mori?   •  Japan: A nation in crisis   •  Japan: What needs to change?   •  Profile of Mori

On Thursday domestic media quoted unnamed politicians who said the LDP is likely to select its new president on April 22, and that the Diet would vote to install a new government - and determine Japan's new prime minister - on April 23.

However, Japan's top government spokesman, Yasuo Fukuda, refused to comment.

"We can't say anything until it happens," he said.

MESSAGE BOARD Discuss issues on Japan's Prime Minister Mori

The uncertainty is expected to continue for another week. Political insiders say Prime Minister Mori will not officially anounce his plans to resign until budget-related legislation has been passed by the Diet next week.

No politician considering a run for the LDP presidency is expected to declare interest publicly until Mori makes that announcement.

In the meantime, political maneuvering goes on behind closed doors...maneuvering so intense that Prime Minister Mori chose to skip a state dinner with the King and Queen of Norway Tuesday night, in favor of political deal-making over sushi with fellow LDP members.

Calls for open selection process

Younger Diet members like Hayashi, who will face tough elections this summer, are pushing the LDP elders to make the selection of the LDP's next leader - who will most likely become Japan's next prime minister - as open as possible.

Otherwise, they say, they'll lose credibility with local LDP members back home. "Every time we choose the president of the LDP," he says, "every member should have a vote."

After the late Prime Minister Obuchi passed away last year, many LDP rank and file were upset by the the way in which Mori was chosen, behind closed doors.

"If we repeat the same kind of closed-room negotiation, and one candidate comes up and nobody runs against him, that would be a disaster," Hayashi said.

While LDP "young turks" like Hayashi realize there won't be enough time between now and the end of April to hold a vote among all LDP members nationwide, they've been pushing Mori and the LDP leadership to expand the election process beyond a formula favored by LDP insiders: a vote held by all LDP members of the Diet, plus the LDP head of each prefecture.

A better compromise, Hayashi and his fellow "young turks" believe, will be to let local prefectures to hold "preliminary" elections among local members to decide who they want to lead the LDP.

Possible Choices

Two possible successors, Hashimoto (L) and Nonaka (R) share a light moment

Political analysts believe that a more open selection system will favor populist candidates like maverick Junichiro Koizumi, head of Mori's faction within the faction-ridden LDP.

Koizumi wants to privatize the postal savings system, a traditional haven of LDP support.

"These kinds of consolidated interest groups still have power in Japan and may resist against liberalization," says Rei Shiratori, President of the Institute for Political Studies.

But Koizumi told reporters on Monday he will only consider running for LDP chief if his party commits to reforming itself.

"The atmosphere within the party may be returning to one of merely distracting people by changing the top leader without actual party reform," he said. "If that is true, there is no need for me to run."

Another name frequently touted by the Japanese media as a possible candidate is a member of the party's old guard, Hiromu Nonaka. A long-time party power-broker, Nonaka was key to the secretive selection of Mori last year.

"If he is going to be elected," says Shiratori, definitely the LDP will see a great loss in the number of seats in the upper house election in July."

Nonaka himself has claimed he has no interest in running anyway. If he doesn't run, its likely that the head of his faction, former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, will.

But Hashimoto was forced to step down after the LDP suffered a major loss in the Diet's upper house election three years ago. "Many members of the LDP don't want to see the same scenario again," says Shiratori.

That leaves ambitious LDP politicians like Hayashi shaking their heads, and dreaming of a strong leader. His constituents, he says "need strong leadership, a change of generations, a change of feeling, a change of message from the party."

It remains unclear where that will come from.

Japan's Mori defends royal snub
March 28, 2001
Mori's job remains up for grabs
March 26, 2001
Budget intensifys dealings to replace Mori
March 26, 2001

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