Rebecca MacKinnon: New clues to China's military posture

CNN Bureau Chief Rebecca MacKinnon has been covering the standoff in China over the detained crew of a U.S. Navy spy plane that collided with a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea. Reacting to Sunday comments by China's defense minister, she offered some analysis.

Q: What did China's defense minister say Sunday about the standoff over the U.S. military crew members?

MacKinnon: China's defense minister spoke offered a military point-of-view on the standoff saying "It's impermissible for the U.S. to want to shirk responsibility." And he also said "The People's Liberation Army does not agree to it. The Chinese people don't agree to it . The people of the world also will not agree to it."

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So in these statements the defense minister was indicating that, at least when it comes to the armed forces, the Chinese military does not want to see a resolution of this crisis without some kind of further concessions from the United States.

Q: Is anything to be interpreted from this unexpected statement by China's defense minister?

MacKinnon: It's hard to know precisely what's going on behind the scenes, but there are a couple of theories here. One theory is that the armed forces are pushing the civilian leadership to take a harder line. They're very upset with the way that the U.S. handled the situation in the initial hours, making demands, insisting that the whole situation was the Chinese fighter plane's fault. They take offense and they want the U.S. to retract its original version of events and accept the fact that it was the U.S. responsibility.

It's an issue of face for the Chinese armed forces because if the United States continues to insist the collision was not the U.S. plane's fault, then that implies that the Chinese Air Force and armed forces may perhaps not be as skilled, and makes them lose face.

Also, the Chinese military has a history of taking a harder line on U.S.-China relations than members of the civilian government. The Foreign Ministry, the Trade Ministry tend to be much more in favor of closer relations. They tend to see the relationship in a more mutually beneficial light. But the Chinese armed forces tend to view the United States as more adversarial.

Another theory, however, is that perhaps the civilian leadership realizes that the armed forces -- in order to get the armed forces to support a deal -- the armed forces need to be allowed to say their piece, to saber rattle, to show their indignity very prominently, and that is the only way that the armed forces will feel it has maintained face in the matter, and that could be necessary in order to keep them on board before moving forward. So there are different theories, we do not know which one is correct at this point in time. We're just going to have to wait and see.

Q: Do we know if any representatives of China's armed forces are taking part in negotiations with the U.S. ambassador at the Foreign Ministry in Beijing?

MacKinnon: As far as we know, the negotiations in Beijing are between U.S. diplomats and the Chinese Foreign Ministry. We have no indication that any military elements have been involved in the negotiations in Beijing. However, it is very important to keep in mind -- and it is very significant -- that the people holding the U.S. crew are the military. They are the ones who continue to keep the U.S. crewmembers in custody. So in order for these people to physically be released, in order for meetings to physically take place, the military very much needs to be on board. They need to feel that their interests and their reputation is being protected and upheld or it's going to be difficult to play ball.

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