Taiwan arms sales the next hurdle

Taiwan has asked the U.S. to continue selling it arms

In this story: Taiwan a pawn Forced diplomacy Sighs of relief RELATED STORIES, SITES

By Staff and wire reports

HONG KONG, China -- The ramifications of the China-U.S. spy plane standoff will be known later this month when the United States makes a decision regarding its proposed arms sales to Taiwan.

The Beijing government has vehemently opposed arms sales to what it considers its renegade province, which broke away from the mainland after the 1949 civil war.

VIDEO The Bush administration says the sale will be based solely on Taiwan's needs. CNN's David Ensor reports Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media)    AUDIO CNN's Kirsty Alfredson speaks with Andrew Yang from the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies 1.96MB/3.06mins AIFF or WAV sound

A letter from Washington stating the U.S. was "very sorry" for an emergency landing in Chinese territory and the presumed death of a Chinese fighter pilot, finally softened China's demand for an outright apology on the incident.

The American spy plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet on April 1 over an area claimed by China but considered by the U.S. to be international air space.

Andrew Yang, secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies in Taipei, told CNN Thursday that both China and the U.S. were able to reach a face-saving compromise.

China got the "maximum regrets from the U.S. side," while the U.S. had "preserved its rightful position by not giving an apology" over the actual collision, Yang said.

Yang said Taiwan was glad the U.S. would continue surveillance flights, as a matter of security in the region.

However, the China-U.S. compromise only "temporarily" eased tension in the region, he added.

Taiwan a pawn

"Some people predict there's going to be many similar standoffs in the future in terms of diplomatic issues," Yang also said.

The U.S. will be closely watched in its April 18 meeting with China on the return of the spy plane, as it is due to decide this month whether to sell Taiwan four destroyers equipped with the Aegis missile-hunting radar system.

China alleges U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are part of the new national missile defense system (NMDS), which the administration of President George W. Bush plans to pursue.

Before the spy plane crew's release, Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian asked the U.S. to continue selling arms to the territory, in a meeting Monday with visiting U.S. senator Jay Rockefeller.

But Taiwan may not have enough influence to insist on its wish list of weapons.

"Taiwan is a small country … we can't do anything to make a major impact on both sides," Yang said.

However, he said Taiwan authorities "will emphasize that China is a powerful state" of which "the U.S. should be aware".

Taiwan says it needs the weapons for its "security capability."

Last month, U.S. officials alleged that China was increasing the number of missiles pointing at Taiwan at a rate of 50 to 300 each year.

U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are part of an accord reached during the Carter administration, which was meant to be a diplomatic salve when Washington renewed relations with Beijing.

Forced diplomacy

Had the spy plane standoff taken longer to resolve, China and the U.S., both part of the five-member U.N. Security Council, may have "hardened" their positions, said United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan.

"I am relieved that the crisis has been brought to a happy end," Annan said, shortly after China and the U.S. confirmed Wednesday the scheduled release of the spy plane crew.

"Hopefully it will get the diplomatic process between Washington and Beijing going again," said Christopher Hughes, an international relations lecturer at the London School of Economics.

Communication between the countries "was in real danger of breaking off before this happened," he said.

Hughes said the accident had helped China get President George Bush's attention.

He also said the settlement could pave the way for better communication on issues including economic woes in Japan and Indonesia, tensions with North Korea, and U.S. military assistance for Taiwan.

"They don't like each other, but they have to work together," Hughes said. "That's the lesson all U.S. administrations learn."

Sighs of relief

The China-U.S. compromise was the lead story around Asia on Wednesday evening news broadcasts.

South Korea's U.N. Ambassador Sun Joun-yung also welcomed the deal.

"The good relationship between the United States and China is very important ... (and) contributes to the stability of the region, including the inter-Korean peace process," he said. "So I'm happy the aviation collision issue is being resolved."

Australian Prime Minister John Howard said the deal struck to release the U.S. crew "does represent a good outcome".

"Relations between the United States and China are very important and I think it reflects credit on the leadership of both countries that the matter appears to be on the road to resolution," he said.

In New York, China's deputy U.N. ambassador Shen Guofang welcomed the agreement while noting there was no decision yet on the return of the spy plane.

Guofang said he was certain that relations could resume where they left off when the planes collided.

"It is in the interests of both countries and both people to develop relations further, and keep stable and healthy relations both commercially or economically or politically," he said.

British U.N. Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock, current president of the U.N. Security Council, said the 15 member nations were "very pleased" with the compromise.

"It's an important relationship between the People's Republic of China and the United States," he said. "It affects the business we do here at the U.N. as well as many other aspects," he said.

In Moscow, Russia's Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said the entire affair, which recalled the days of U.S.-Soviet standoffs, was between the United States and China, the ITAR-Tass news agency reported.

In Hong Kong, Chinese University political analyst Lau Siu-kai said the settlement had been expected.

"The Asian countries are rather relieved," he said. "The incident has allowed both sides to get to know more about each other and to understand their bottom lines. It's conducive towards future cooperation and is mutually beneficial."

Fellow Hong Kong analyst Lee Kam-hung called the deal "a win-win solution."

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