Koizumi has uphill battle for reform

Junichiro Koizumi has vowed to destroy forces blocking his reformist agenda

In this story: Conflicting forces Intense scrutiny RELATED STORIES, SITES

By staff and wire reports

TOKYO, Japan -- Analysts say Japan's renegade prime minister-in-waiting, Junichiro Koizumi, faces an uphill battle if he expects to carry out his reformist agenda.

Seen as an agent of change in Japan's faction-ridden political landscape, Koizumi has sworn to destroy the old-style of Japanese politicking that has its roots in backroom wheeling and dealing.

But he will have to juggle the conflicting agendas inside his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and also within the coalition he relies on to maintain a grip on power, if he is to be successful.

Immediately after Koizumi's landslide win in the LDP leadership election, which also anointed Koizumi as the nation's next prime minister, Japanese media began to focus on who will be included in the new LDP cabinet.

The Asahi newspaper carried the headline "Koizumi's leadership acumen now faces the test of his deeds" and urged readers not to be overcome by "short-term euphoria or acclaim".

"Some within the LDP intend to ride through the Upper House election in July on the wake of Koizumi's popularity. That would be a misreading of the situation. We need to pay careful attention to what Koizumi says and what he does …" it said.

Conflicting forces

The Daily Yomiuri newspaper headline reads: "Koizumi faces task of juggling obligations to party, coalition".

Its report says that with Koizumi's elevation to the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party and thus the premiership a virtual certainty, "attention has shifted to the lineup of his new administration and the ruling coalition".

Some observers say the number of votes Koizumi gathered in Tuesday's leadership vote suggests he won with the support of LDP policy chief Shizuka Kamei, who withdrew from the leadership race ahead of Tuesday's vote citing Koizumi's overwhelming popularity.

It's now being wondered if Koizumi has cut a deal with Kamei's faction to exchange votes for a senior position in his cabinet, despite his promise to appoint ministers on the grounds of merit only.

"This is going to be the next key thing to watch for. If Kamei gets a serious position in the new set-up you're already going down the path of pragmatism leading to re-written promises," said ING Baring economist Richard Jerram.

"It would be very, very negative for the market if Koizumi gives Kamei a serious post, because Kamei has been almost the antithesis of Koizumi."

Media reports quote Koizumi as vowing to destroy forces blocking reforms, particularly those within the LDP.

"Garnering a whopping 87 percent of the local vote in the LDP's presidential primaries, maverick reformer Junichiro Koizumi on Monday vowed to "destroy" forces standing against his reform agenda and launch a Cabinet free of the party's factional shackles," the Japan Times online edition said Monday.

"My political life will end if I fail to form a Cabinet that reflects the voice of the people," the paper reported Koizumi telling a crowd in Niigata Prefecture on the last day of his two-week campaign.

"Although the election will end tomorrow, the real fight will not end until the voice of the people destroys forces that are resisting reforms."

Intense scrutiny

Just how Koizumi implements reforms to lift Japan's ailing economy out of the mire is another matter of great scrutiny. Japan's economy has been in a downward spiral for the best part of the previous decade, and much hope rests on Koizumi's ability to reverse the momentum.

"His economic policy has been vague, contradictory and frequently changing, but the market's taking the view that anything is better than what we've had so far," Jerram told CNN.

"He's seen as the only person who offers anything radically different and therefore it's probably a good thing. That is probably the right idea, but so far it's impossible to say what all this means because we don't know exactly what he's going to do."

"What he says he will do and what he ends up doing may be different, and it really depends on how much support he has in the LDP.

It's clear the public wants him to do something, but we've seen it before where somebody comes to power with big ideas but discovers that compromises are necessary if they want to get anything done."

Japan's Koizumi wins LDP poll, set for PM
April 24, 2001
Business welcomes change to Koizumi
April 24, 2001
Positives of a Koizumi win unclear
April 23, 2001
Koizumi bounds to front in Japan PM race
April 23, 2001
Reformer leads race for Japanese prime minister
April 23, 2001

Liberal Democratic Party of Japan

Note: Pages will open in a new browser window

External sites are not endorsed by CNN Interactive.