ANALYSIS: Taiwan can't complain

Taiwan Navy's U.S. built Gearing-class destroyers sit docked in Keelung harbor

By Mike Chinoy
CNN Senior Asia Correspondent

(CNN) -- On balance Taiwan can't complain over the U.S. decision not to supply it with the advanced Aegis radar system.

It's been clear for some time that the U.S. administration was not going to sell Aegis which has been at the top of Taiwan's wishlist.

Opinions in Taiwan have been quite sharply divided over the wisdom of acquiring Aegis. Last week, Taiwan's Foreign Minister indicated that the government wouldn't be too bothered if the decision went against Aegis at this stage.

The fact that the U.S. has not ruled out giving Aegis some time down the road is definitely a source of comfort for Taiwan.

In the short term, Taiwan's air defense capability will be bolstered because the Kidd class destroyers, unlike the Aegis system which will take six to eight years to build, will be available within two or three years.

The Kidd class destroyers -- four of which will be supplied to Taiwan -- carry a more advanced air-defense missile system than used currently by the Taiwanese navy.

This will also increase their defense capability.

Unanswered questions

There are a number of interesting questions still unanswered about the U.S. arms package for Taiwan.

It is not clear whether the U.S. intends to go ahead with the construction of the new Aegis system mounted on Arleigh Burke destroyers. That will be very important in determining whether or not the U.S. is laying the groundwork to make these systems available to Taiwan.

Taiwan will receive four Kidd class destroyers, similar to the U.S. Navy's USS Chandler pictured here

Also, there were reports that the U.S. would work with Taiwan to help it get diesel powered submarines.

Those submarines are not built in the U.S. and Washington would have to work with Germany and the Netherlands to license the construction of such submarines.

This raises of the possibility of China pressuring those countries not to co-operate with Taiwan or the U.S.

China's reaction

China has made it very clear that the red line that the U.S. could not cross without precipitating a major crisis would be providing Aegis to Taiwan.

However, Beijing is almost certainly going to say that it strongly objects in principle to any arms sales.

The possibility of submarines would also be particularly alarming to China.

A submarines can operate as an offensive weapon whereas the official U.S. position has always been to provide Taiwan with defensive weapons.

In any case, the submarines can help neutralize one of the major threats China can pose to Taiwan -- that of a naval blockade.

So Beijing is going to very angry but not as angry as it would have been had the Bush administration decided to move ahead and supply the Aegis system to Taiwan.

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