Li Ruihuan: The key to reform?

By Willy Wo-lap Lam
Senior China analyst

(CNN) -- Not too many Chinese, let alone foreigners, are familiar with the ideas and exploits of Li Ruihuan, the Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).

Yet the former carpenter and architect of the Great Hall of the People could hold the key to the question of leadership succession, if not also the future direction of reform.

This is despite the fact that the latest Li story out of Beijing is that the member of the ruling Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) had during the past months informed the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) headquarters three times of his desire to retire at the 16th party congress next year.

Li watchers believe, however, the wily Li is following the classic bureaucratic ploy called yitui weijin, or "making a retreat so as to advance better."

After all, Li, 67, will be two years shy of 70 -- the supposed retirement age for Politburo members -- at the 16th congress, which will endorse a new CCP leadership.

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Moreover, the former Tianjin mayor has the same seniority as President Jiang Zemin. Having been relegated to the sidelines by Jiang since 1989, Li has hardly hidden his desire to hit the big times before retirement.

Li supporters think he and Vice-President Hu Jintao, 58, will be the only two PSC incumbents to have their five-year terms renewed at the 16th congress.

They also believe Li will get the more substantial portfolio of chairman of the National People's Congress (NPC), a post now held by the unpopular Li Peng.

"One possibility much discussed in Beijing is that Li Ruihuan will form a triumvirate together with Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao," said a veteran party cadre.

Hu is slated to succeed Jiang as party general secretary next year, and Wen, 58, is expected to take over from Zhu Rongji as premier.

Under this scenario, Li, as NPC chairman, will be able to wield sizeable influence thanks to his seniority over both Hu and Wen.

The trio is also expected to enjoy a good relationship. All three have links to the Communist Youth League, deemed a liberal offshoot of the CCP.

And they may close ranks against Jiang's Shanghai Faction, whose representative figures such as Zeng Qinghong and Wu Bangguo may form a big clique in the post-16th congress PSC.

Analysts say even if Li only manages to hang on to the Politburo at the 16th congress, he will still be a force to be reckoned with if not also a lightning rod for reform.

Among current PSC members, Li has the best track record as a liberal, particularly on political matters.

Populist means

It is at Li's insistence that the status of non-CCP members as well as members of the eight "democratic parties" -- mostly groupings of academics, professionals and businessmen -- has been raised.

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Thanks to Li's suggestion, most provincial and municipal governments have set aside a virtual quota of senior positions to be filled by non-party politicians and experts.

Li has consistently advocated a more populist if not democratic means of diffusing social tensions.

His most famous mottoes include "let the masses feel good" and "the feelings of the people must not be pent up."

The CPPCC chief is known to disagree with Jiang's draconian measures against the Falun Gong. To this day, he has never made any public denunciation on the sect.

Moreover, Li has spoken out against officials seeking to embellish their credentials through cooking up statistics or pursuing prestige projects.

Another of his favorite sayings is "we must do concrete things for the people."

Tolerant towards Hong Kong

His tolerant views on Hong Kong are also well known. Li said in the early 1990s that Hong Kong must be treated like a prized Yixing teapot, meaning too much interference from Beijing would spoil its value.

While touring the former British colony late last year, he admonished pro-Beijing politicians such as Hong Kong deputies to the NPC not to meddle with local affairs.

The peculiarities -- and potential contributions -- of the low-key Li is best seen when comparing him to Jiang, who likes to pass himself off as a polyglot philosopher-king.

The president has hogged the limelight in the run-up to the 80th anniversary of the CCP on July 1. Most propaganda has played up Jiang's larger-than-life contributions to economic and political development.

Li watchers think, however, the reticent CPPCC chairman could make the difference at two pivotal meetings: the series of leadership conferences to take place at the Beidaihe resort in August, which will be devoted to personnel issues; and the 16th congress itself.

Firstly, Li seems keen to frustrate the scheme by Jiang, 74, and NPC chief Li Peng, 72, to maintain their influence beyond 2002.

It is understood that despite having passed the retirement age of 70, Jiang and Li Peng want either to stay on in some capacity or have the Politburo pass a resolution saying they must be consulted on weighty matters of state until the 17th party congress of 2007.

Rejuvenation

While Jiang seems to have things under control, Li Ruihuan and other opponents to the Shanghai Faction could tap into a groundswell of discontent against the return of dynastic politics.

Highly popular premier Zhu Rongji, 72, struck a chord of resonance in early June when he gave up his concurrent post as dean of the School of Management at elite Tsinghua University.

It is believed Zhu's unusual gesture, like Li Ruihuan's offer of resignation, was meant to underscore the imperative of rejuvenation.

Secondly, Li could redirect public debate to political reform, something that Jiang has put off time after time.

After all, even Jiang has agreed that there should be a meaningful statement on political liberalization at the 16th congress.

Li's views about democracy are that it should best be developed in a "step by step, active and steady manner."

"In the Chinese context, one realistic reform in the near term is to foster 'checks and balances' by giving some real power to the 'democratic parties' as well as other groupings of non-CCP professionals and businessmen," said a party source.

"Irrespective of whether Li will become NPC chairman at the 16th party congress, the first steps he has already taken in empowering non-party politicians and intellectuals have made him a suitable person to set the agenda for political reform."

While visiting South Africa last April, Li toured the prison where Nelson Mandela was imprisoned for 18 years.

"History is made by the people," Li said at the time. "In assessing whether [a politician] has really achieved something big, the last word belongs to posterity."

Analysts believe that rather than talking about the former South African president, Li was referring to Jiang -- and himself.

The CPPCC chief's message seemed to be that a cadre could endear himself to tomorrow's historians only through concrete work for the people, not the kind of showmanship with which Jiang's public relations men are saturating the nation this week.