Wargames continue Beijing's mindbattle with Taiwan

China's wargames are routinely held from May to October, analysts say

By Willy Lam
CNN Senior China Analyst

HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- Beijing is continuing its psychological warfare with Taiwan following several Hong Kong media reports on China's war games along the southeast coast.

The Beijing-controlled Hong Kong paper, Wei Wei Po, reported on Wednesday that weapons imported from Russia including Su-30 jet-fighters would be used in maneuvers off the provinces of Fujian, Zhejiang and Guangdong.

It quoted unnamed experts in Beijing as saying that the maneuvers, particularly those involving amphibious landings, were aimed at the main island of Taiwan, and not outlying islets as had been reported earlier.

The paper also reported that the war games, which had been extended to more provinces, would go on until the end of autumn.

Routine exercises

AUDIO Richard Butler, Council on Foreign Relations, says the China-Taiwan issue is something both sides will have to live with for some time. 820K / 1:16min AIFF or WAV sound

A Beijing-based Western military analyst said, however, that it was routine for the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to hold exercises both inland and along the coast from May to October.

"A number of recent large-scale war games, including those in Shandong Province, have not been reported in the media," he said.

The analyst pointed out that contrary to Taiwan-related war games in previous years, footage of the maneuvers had not appeared on mainland television.

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"Tidbits about the military maneuvers have been reported in the pro-China Hong Kong press mainly as part of a psychological warfare against Taiwan," he said.

No easy solution

Richard Butler, Diplomat-in-Residence at the Council on Foreign Relations, said there is no easy solution to the China-Taiwan issue, saying both sides need to be "sensible and get on with each other".

"I can't conceive of a government in Beijing that would ever give up on its view that Taiwan is a part of China and I don't see any possibility, not for a long time, that within the Taiwanese polity that there would be an accommodation to become a part of China," he told CNN.

Meanwhile, a source familiar with Beijing's Taiwan policy said on Wednesday the leadership of China's President Jiang Zemin would continue to stick to a restrained policy toward the "renegade island."

The source said Beijing needed to mend fences with Washington, and to continue luring businessmen and opposition politicians from Taiwan to the mainland.

"Beijing's reaction to [former Taiwan president] Lee Teng-hui's trip to the U.S. has remained surprisingly muted," the source said.

"For reasons including Beijing's bid for the 2008 Olympics and Jiang's forthcoming summit with [U.S. President] George Bush, it is unlikely Beijing will try serious saber rattling against Taiwan this year."

The source added Beijing was confident that the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party and forces loyal to Lee would be unable to get a majority of the seats at crucial parliamentary elections in Taiwan this December.