Mao, Deng may fade in Jiang's afterglow

Jiang wants the party to accord him a status higher than Mao and Deng

By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
CNN Senior China Analyst

(CNN) -- This could be Jiang Zemin's last battle. The president is set to put the finishing touches to his legacy at a crucial leadership conference at the North China seaside resort of Beidaihe from July 25.

The agenda will include China's accession to the World Trade Organization and relations with the United States but the 200-odd senior cadres present will pay most attention to two priorities.

One is to enshrine Jiang Theory as party dogma -- and to give Jiang a predominant place in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) pantheon.

The other is to come to a preliminary consensus on the new leadership that will be endorsed at the 16th party congress next year.

Jiang, who turns 75 next month, wants the party to accord him a status that in many ways is even more elevated than that of his predecessors, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.

MORE STORIES Freedom under fire as Hong Kong marks handover day     VIDEO CNN's Mike Chinoy reports on the party's history. Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media)   IN-DEPTH China's Communist Party: 80 years of power Question of communism Profile: Jiang Zemin Timeline: China Messageboard   COUNTRY PROFILE At a glance: China Provided by CountryWatch.com    CNN.com Asia More news from our Asia edition

This is evident from the president's address on the CCP's 80th birthday on July 1, which concentrated on the achievements of the nation since he took the helm in 1989.

According to a party source, state propaganda will cast both Mao and Deng as more transitional figures than epoch-making titans.

Thus, Mao spearheaded the transition from fractured, feudalistic China to the early phase of nation-building. But he didn't do much for economic development.

Deng retooled Stalinist central planning but died before he could make a go of the socialist market economy.

"Jiang is portrayed as the real architect of a new era," the source said. "He has laid a solid foundation for a market economy that matches international standards.

"And it is along Jiang's path that the nation will go for decades on end."

The Beidaihe series of meetings, which may run into mid-August, is expected to endorse Jiang's principal precept -- the Theory of the Three Representations -- as state dogma.

This theory is a reference to the fact that the CCP must be representative of the most advanced productivity, the foremost culture, and the fundamental interests of the broad masses.

In accordance with Jiang's instructions, the party constitution will be revised next year to allow the CCP to admit private businessmen, deemed to be representatives of advanced productivity and culture.

Larger-than-life

More by Willy Wo Lap Lam • Combating American hegemony   • After 80 years CCP looks to future   • How China retreats to attack   • Hoisting the Red Flag   • China's loss may prove a winner   • New star in the making   • China's cadres play 'Survivor'

Moreover, a Leading Group on Editing Jiang's Selected Works has recently been set up.

Headed by Jiang protégé Zeng Qinghong, the group will publish the first volume of the president's voluminous speeches and writings next year.

The Beidaihe conference will probably brush aside objections to the Three Representations Theory put up by leftists, or conservatives. These remnant Maoists have argued that the CCP -- and socialism -- will be adulterated if red capitalists, who are considered "exploiters," are admitted to the party.

Under the direct supervision of Jiang's personal office, the media is working overtime to play up the larger-than-life exploits of Jiang and the "grand foresight and lofty perspicacity" of his teachings.

According to a Beijing-based editor, the authorities have asked media outlets to temporarily refrain from dwelling on fads or new discoveries in the social sciences.

Division of spoils

"The idea is that the limelight should go to Jiang Theory alone," the editor said.

"Breakthroughs in disciplines ranging from economics to philosophy, no matter how brilliant or timely, won't be given much space or time in newspapers and on TV until the mass education about Jiang Theory is over."

The second item on the Beidaihe agenda will testify to another time-tested CCP tradition: the division of the spoils among the party's different factions.

A preliminary list of nominees for the new 190-odd member Central Committee will be ready for deliberation.

More importantly, top cadres, mainly members of the supreme Politburo Standing Committee (PSC), will put forward their nominations for the new Politburo.

Owing to retirement and other reasons, about half of the 22 incumbent Politburo members will step down next year to make way for Fourth Generation or younger cadres.

Two new members

Western diplomats say Jiang is pushing for the induction of at least two new Politburo members.

One of them is Education Minister Chen Zhili, his old subordinate from Shanghai.

The other is likely to be a new face from outside the central bureaucracy. The names of Zhejiang party secretary Zhang Dejiang, Jiangsu party boss Hui Liangyu, and Beijing mayor Liu Qi have been mentioned.

A number of Jiang associates, including Zeng, Vice-Premier Wu Bangguo and Guangdong party secretary Li Changchun will likely be given second five-year terms in the Politburo.

Premier Zhu Rongji is said to be lobbying for Politburo membership for two key lieutenants.

They are People's Bank of China Governor Dai Xianglong and State Council Secretary-general Wang Zhongyu.

Other powerful PSC members, including National People's Congress Chairman Li Peng and Vice President Hu Jintao, will also be throwing their weight behind trusted associates.

Traditional values

According to a cadre familiar with preparations for Beidaihe, one proposal is that participants would consider new -- and more modernization-minded criteria -- for selecting Fourth Generation leaders.

For example, as well as traditional values of being "both red and expert," candidates for elevation must display knowledge of the market economy and global norms.

But in practice, deliberations on personnel issues will likely be steered by factional considerations.

And despite the apparent pre-eminence of the Jiang faction, the cut and thrust is tipped to be ferocious.

For this reason it is most improbable Beidaihe participants can arrive at even a preliminary consensus on the composition of the PSC that will be endorsed at the 16th party congress.

But irrespective of the final outcome of the horse-trading, analysts say Jiang's relentless promotion of himself and his Shanghai Faction has dealt a blow to "inner party democracy," not to mention political reform.

This is even though in his July 1 address, the president again pledged to "fully develop democracy within the party" and to ensure that cadres are picked under "criteria of openness, fairness and competitiveness."

Unpopular cadres

In theory, a well-defined and relatively open method for selecting party leaders already exists.

Thus every five years, grassroots CCP affiliates first select the 2,000 or so delegates to the party congress. At the congress, these delegates will elect Central Committee members, who will in turn elect Politburo members from among themselves.

While these procedures have very often been tampered by incumbent PSC members or party elders, there have been instances of unpopular cadres such as leftist ideologues failing to be elected either congress delegates or Central Committee members.

Naturally, efforts by Jiang and company to pre-select Central Committee and Politburo members well ahead of the 16th congress will only delay the pace of "inner-party democracy."

And Jiang's obsession with his place in history, coupled with his insistence that only his proteges can carry the torch forward, will only give future historians more reasons to deny him the status he craves so desperately.