Beijing unphased by Taiwan's new party

A jubilant Lee after the Taiwan Solidarity Union was formed

By Willy Wo-lap Lam
Senior China Analyst

(CNN) -- Beijing has expressed confidence the formation of a new pro-independence Taiwan party, the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), cannot do much to advance the cause of separatism.

The TSU, which was formed in Taipei on Sunday, is closely associated with former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui.

It supports Lee's pro-independence edicts, such as the so-called "two states theory," which says relations between the mainland and Taiwan are those between two sovereign states.

Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian, who is close to Lee, has indicated his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) might work together with the TSU in upcoming elections for the Legislative Yuan.

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However, commentaries in official Chinese news agencies and papers have stressed the TSU’s lack of popular support -- and possible infighting among different pro-independence forces.

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The TSU, which has co-opted pro-Lee members within the Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party, is fielding 39 candidates for the hotly-contested polls.

TSU leader Wang Chu-wen claimed it could get 20% of popular votes, or about 20 out of the 225 seats in the legislature.

Projections by the Taiwan media, however, said TSU would likely get only 7% of the votes, which would translate into eight to 10 seats.

Small chance of success

Political analysts in Taipei said DDP and TSU strategists hoped they could gain control over the legislature with the help of independents.

The analysts said, however, given that the DPP was fielding only 85 candidates, the chances for success were not high.

Meanwhile, mainland commentators are discounting the threat that Lee's new party might pose.

A commentary in the People's Daily website highlighted the "contradictions" between the TSU and the DPP, saying it was unlikely the two could work together closely.

A Chinese source familiar with Beijing's Taiwan policies said mainland authorities would render all the help they could give to pro-unification parties such as the Kuomintang, the People's First Party and the New Party.

The official Beijing media have also run large numbers of stories attacking the integrity of Lee and other TSU politicians.

Should both the DPP and TSU do badly in December's polls, Chen's administration will become a lame duck government and the possibilities of Chen being re-elected as president in 2004 will be minimized.