Bush to walk on reddest of carpets in Beijing

Jiang with O'Neill: 'positive improvement in Sino-U.S. ties'

By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
CNN Senior China Analyst

(CNN) -- China's preparations for the October visit of President George W. Bush have gone into high gear.

And President Jiang Zemin has re-emphasized that all efforts be made to ensure that his mini-summit with Bush will be a success.

Since early summer, a high-level inter-departmental committee reporting only to Jiang has been laying the groundwork for the tour.

Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan will be in Washington later this month to finalize details of Bush's itinerary.

Jiang has also asked his trusted aide, Chinese ambassador to Washington Yang Jiechi, to reassure the White House that Beijing would be rolling out the reddest of carpets.

Analysts said recent hiccups in bilateral ties -- Washington's sale of 40 air-to-ground missiles to the Taiwan Air Force and its censure of a state corporation for allegedly selling missile parts to Pakistan -- would unlikely dampen Beijing's zeal.

Senior cadres including Jiang himself have in recent weeks talked up the prospects of China-U.S. relations.

For example, while meeting U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Paul O'Neill on Monday, Jiang said he was impressed by the "recent positive improvement in Sino-U.S. ties after some ups and downs."

What lies behind Beijing's enthusiasm?

At the recent high-level conference at the Beidaihe resort, the leadership reaffirmed the "double-fisted," or two-pronged policy, towards Washington.

On the one hand, Beijing must continue to raise its guard against alleged attempts by the Bush administration to "encircle and contain" China through means such as an Asia-based missile-defense system.

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So-called anti-containment policies have included consolidating the quasi-alliance relationship with Russia. Both Jiang and Premier Zhu Rongji have visited Moscow in the past two months.

The People's Liberation Army is continuing the relentless build-up of key weapons such as missiles.

At the same time, Beijing will pursue a policy of "avoiding confrontation and keeping a low profile" in Sino-U.S. relations.

Soft stance

There are many reasons why, particularly in the public handling of bilateral ties, Beijing seems to be maintaining a soft and conciliatory stance.

A couple of years ago, Beijing's top foreign policymakers settled on this characterization of the world order: "One superpower in conjunction with several powerful countries or blocs."

This was a reference to global power dynamics being an interplay among the U.S., the European Union, China, Japan and Russia, but with Washington taking the lead.

A recent internal assessment pointed out the lone superpower had gained strength vis-à-vis the other powers.

And Beijing's strategists have decided it is not yet time to take on the U.S.

Moreover, Jiang and company have stuck to their belief that in the foreseeable future, economic development will remain Beijing's major goal and this goal is dependent on the American market and U.S. investment.

According to sources close to Beijing's diplomatic establishment, Bush would be accorded the same high-level treatment that Bill Clinton got during the latter's state visit in 1998.

As was the case in the few months prior to Clinton's visit, Jiang has since late spring ordered state media units to clamp down on expressions of anti-American or excessively nationalistic articles.

This is despite the fact that Jiang much prefers Clinton to Bush, who has abandoned his predecessor's "China-friendly" policies such as the "three Nos" stance on Taiwan.

Moreover, the Bush sojourn to Beijing after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Shanghai will likely be styled a "working visit," not a full-fledged state visit.

University address

Bush faces some grilling on the proposed missile defence shield

Apart from an elaborate welcome ceremony, Bush will be given the opportunity to address a major university.

And his subsequent conversation with students will be broadcast live, and supposedly in an uncensored fashion, on Chinese television.

More substantially, Beijing will likely release one or two dissidents -- or Chinese-American scholars and businessmen held in Chinese detention centers -- as a welcome gift.

The authorities are reportedly studying who is the most suitable candidate for "clemency."

Such a gesture will, from Beijing's perspective, help Bush defend his trip before congressmen unhappy about China's human rights record.

As another demonstration of goodwill, Beijing will profess enthusiasm for a resumption of military exchanges that were largely frozen after the April 1 spy plane incident.

Most importantly, Beijing is willing, depending on how the mini-summit goes, to give away goodies to American businesses.

Hot issue

Given the unlikelihood that Jiang and Bush will come to terms on the hottest issue on their political agenda -- America's national missile defense (NMD) system -- much of the talks will be focused on economic issues.

To alleviate U.S. anger over the US$80-odd billion trade surplus in China's favor -- and to reward the American corporate community for its overall support of China -- Beijing is dangling fresh contracts and juicy deals.

It is understood that in the run-up to World Trade Organization (WTO), relevant Communist party and government units are drawing up a rough "division of the spoils."

This is reference to which countries will likely be given the choicest business deals and market opportunities in the first few years after WTO.

Apart from ensuring Washington's help in Chinese economic development, what does Jiang want in return?

Hi-tech investments

Firstly, Beijing is after some kind of a promise that Washington will not thwart the generally favorable development in the Taiwan Strait.

Most senior cadres believe that in the wake of the influx of investment from hi-tech Taiwan companies -- as well as visits by renowned Taiwan politicians -- to the mainland, the momentum in the cross-Strait slugfest is going Beijing's way.

Moreover, Jiang hopes to secure a pledge that even if Washington were to go ahead with NMD, Taiwan would not be incorporated into an Asian-based theatre missile defense system.

Secondly, a good summit will help consolidate the position of the 75-year-old Jiang - and boost his influence in the crucial 16th Communist party congress next year.

"A successful meeting with Bush will testify to Jiang's ability to make a go of his vaunted great powers diplomacy, that China can play a sizeable role in global diplomacy," said a Western diplomat.

Great power diplomacy is said to be one of six major components of Jiang Zemin Theory.

Hundreds of thousands of books bearing that name will be published early next year.

"If the summit can boost Jiang's domestic stature, the retiring president will be in a better position to lobby for his protégés at the 16th congress," the diplomat added.

Negative reaction

While it is too early to say whether Jiang's conciliatory approach could coax concessions out of Bush, the domestic reaction to his "pro-U.S." policy has been generally negative.

Referring to Beijing's "low profile" diplomacy, leftist theorist Guan Chajia said it would only succeed if ordinary Chinese were able to feel the benefits of such a policy of self-denial.

"If the Chinese government wants to implement a lie-low foreign policy, it must carry out commensurate [domestic] measures to curb corruption, harmonize disparate interest blocs and lessen the disparity between rich and poor," Guan argued.

Other conservative and nationalistic intellectuals are saying openly the Jiang administration is being soft on the U.S. because senior cadres and their children have formed lucrative joint ventures with American businessmen to exploit the China market.