China draws closer to U.S. after terror strike

By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
CNN Senior China Analyst

(CNN) -- At least on the surface, the terrorist attacks on the United States have provided an unexpected opening for China-U.S. relations.

As long as the danger of terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism looms large in the American psyche, the “China threat” theory may seem less credible.

And even so-called China bashers in the American Congress might soon be persuaded that the quasi-capitalist Communist party administration might not be America’s greatest foe.

Moreover, the main bone of contention between the two countries – Washington’s development of a national missile defense (NMD) – may also recede into the background.

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Importantly, Beijing’s reaction to the terrorist attack is unexpectedly positive from the U.S. perspective.

From day one, the Chinese leadership has offered strong support for Washington’s effort to stamp out international terrorism.

In a phone conversation with President George W. Bush last Wednesday, President Jiang Zemin expressed support for the global crusade against terrorism.

However it is also true that Jiang, and Vice-Premier Qian Qichen, have emphasized to U.S. leaders the need to solve terrorist problems in the context of international consultation and cooperation, preferably under United Nations auspices.

Beijing vehemently opposed NATO’s strikes against Kosovo two-and-a-half years ago. And that was well before the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade.

In 1999, Beijing’s main argument was that Washington and NATO had violated the territorial integrity of a sovereign country under the pretext of international humanitarianism.

So far, no senior Chinese leader has made the same point in relation to the hunt for Osama bin Laden.

Part of the reason, of course, is that the Taliban is suspected of encouraging Islam fundamentalism in Xinjiang and of helping train guerillas for the Uighur separatist cause.

Diplomatic sources say that immediately after the terrorist action in the U.S., Beijing consulted with Islamabad about ensuring weapons it had helped Pakistan build would not be used by the Taliban in the event of a strike against Afghanistan.

Judging by the vehemence with which officials such as Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao have denied widespread Western reports about secret ties between Beijing and the Taliban, it seems likely Jiang is leaning towards a policy of tacit compliance towards any impending military action.

It must be pointed out that Jiang, not to mention some of his more hawkish or nationalistic colleagues, are ambivalent to the U.S.’s fight against terrorism.

Jiang and the Communist party Politburo know that unreserved support for any campaign could be seen as endorsement of Bush’s perceived unilateralism.

Beijing is reluctant to endorse Washington’s campaign against Afghanistan because it wants to retain its traditionally close ties with the Muslim and Arab world.

This is why, despite Beijing’s misgivings about the Taliban, it has sought to establish some form of ties with the fundamentalists.

And much as Beijing itself is against terrorism, Chinese leaders also realize countries and elements such as Iraq and the bin Laden group constitute some kind of check on U.S. power.

But many senior cadres, including Jiang and Premier Zhu Rongji, have decided it is not yet time to take on the U.S.

However, the full extent of Beijing’s response to Washington’s counter-terrorist gameplan will be known only after any air-strikes or other military actions begin.

Should Jiang decide to stick to the current course of acquiescence, the possibility of a revival of a Sino-U.S. “constructive, strategic partnership” – which was hammered out by Jiang and former President Bill Clinton in 1998 – may suddenly improve.