Jiang fears U.S. foothold in Central Asia

Security has been tight in Beijing since the September 11 attacks on the U.S.

By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
CNN's Senior China Analyst

(CNN) -- As the United States and its allies were finalizing their military preparations against Afghanistan late last week, Chinese President Jiang Zemin called a meeting of senior Politburo colleagues and key advisers.

Jiang reportedly raised three questions about the looming war: how long the military action will last; how large-scale it will be; and what Washington's "real objective" is.

Sources close to Beijing's diplomatic establishment said Jiang was worried about alleged efforts by the administration of President George W. Bush to extend U.S. "hegemonism" to central Asia -- and to establish a foothold in China's southwest backyard.

In Beijing's perception, the more prolonged and extensive the military effort, the more likely it is that Washington could achieve goals that were objectionable to China.

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These include setting up a pro-U.S. regime in Kabul; establishing a substantial presence in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; and engineering a tilt toward the U.S. within the Pakistani government.

Worse, American success against the Taliban and its allies might goad Islamic extremists based in countries including Afghanistan to Uzbekistan to flee to Xinjiang Autonomous Region, home to more than seven million Muslim Uighurs.

That is why soon after the September 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S., Jiang dispatched senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) staff to Xinjiang to beef up security precautions.

The PLA officers included Vice-Chief of Staff General Xiong Guangkai, a veteran head of military intelligence and leading expert on the U.S.

While Jiang's military advisers have told him the short Sino-Afghan border is secure and there is no danger of a massive influx of refugees into southern Xinjiang, the president is said to be unhappy about the latest turn of events.

Low profile

It should be noted that while the ongoing skirmishes are taking place not far from China's backyard, Beijing has maintained an uncharacteristically low profile.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry's response immediately after the missiles rained on Kabul and Kandahar consisted of vague statements that Beijing was opposed to "all forms of terrorism" and that it hoped peace would be resumed "as soon as possible."

And while the ministry said Beijing hoped the military actions should be "targeted at specific objectives," it avoided explicit value judgments on the air strikes.

The same points were repeated by Jiang in his telephone conversation with Bush on Monday.

A major reason for Beijing's restraint is that the Jiang administration sees in September 11 an opening for mending fences with the U.S.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has also dropped strong hints that in return for its acquiescence in American attacks on the Taliban, Beijing hopes the U.S. would make concessions on the Taiwan front.

For example, Beijing is pushing Bush to pledge to scale down arms sale to Taiwan.

Sanctions

The Foreign Ministry has also asked Washington to lift its remaining sanctions on China, the same way that it had done with Pakistan and India.

Diplomatic analysts said, however, that there was no sign that Washington would be forthcoming on these scores.

All that Bush has done so far is to give Beijing -- and particularly Jiang -- face by agreeing to visit Shanghai for two days of meetings at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).

Indeed, Beijing has let the world know how much it cares about Bush's attendance by issuing a news release just hours after the missile strikes on Monday that the U.S. president would keep his Shanghai date.

However, according to a Chinese source familiar with Beijing's preparations for APEC, Bush's attendance could also prove a big embarrassment for host Jiang.

After all, Beijing's original goal for APEC was to showcase China's status as an "emergent regional superpower," or at least the only economy that had weathered the global recession this year.

Its pride was amply demonstrated at a lavish signing ceremony in Washington last Wednesday, which marked China's purchase of $1.6 billion worth of Boeing aircraft.

The deal was billed by Chinese officials and media as a shot in the arm of the faltering American economy.

"We won't forget our friends, especially at a time of difficulties," the Chinese official media quoted Vice-Minister of State Planning Zhang Guobao, as saying.

Upstaged

Yet, given that the world's focus in the several weeks ahead will on Afghanistan, Beijing's APEC gameplan would likely be upstaged by the anti-terrorist campaign.

"There is little question that Bush will use APEC as a platform for rallying support his tough tactics against the Taliban," said one Asian diplomat.

"Bush will particularly try to appeal to leaders of countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam, who have shown reservations about a large-scale strike at Afghanistan."

By contrast, Beijing's somewhat wishy-washy stance on terrorism may make it look weak in the eyes of the countries it had hoped to win over at APEC: those from the developing world that agree with Beijing's effort to promote a more "equitable," non-U.S. dominated, global economic order.

Of course, whether Beijing could still turn September 11 and its aftermath in its favor depends on the outcome of the "mini-summit" between Jiang and Bush.

Given that Jiang will retire from his most important position of party General Secretary at the Communist party's 16th congress next year, the APEC conferences would be one of his last remaining chances to play the role of senior international statesman.

Diplomatic sources say it is likely Jiang and Bush will in their tete-a-tete confirm some form of cooperation in the fight against terrorism, including the swapping of intelligence.

That an exchange mechanism will be put in place between the FBI and the secretive Ministry of State Security could be construed as proof of amelioration in Sino-U.S. ties.

Power diplomacy

Bush may also praise Beijing as a responsible member of the global community through at least tacitly going along with his anti-terrorist crusade.

And TV images of Jiang and Bush shaking hands enthusiastically are precisely what the Chinese president needs to justify his controversial "great power diplomacy" to a domestic audience.

Beijing-based analysts say, however, that unless Jiang can secure something more concrete than mere symbols of Sino-U.S. friendship, the president may find it difficult to parry a growing tide of internal criticism of his U.S. policy.

Already, PLA hawks as well as nationalistic intellectuals have groused that Beijing's response to a potentially massive conflagration at its doorstep has been too weak.

Jiang's detractors have also claimed his policy of acquiescence regarding the bombings in Afghanistan has already cost China friends in the Arab and Muslim world.

And it is only due to a gag order that Jiang has put on the generals and radical intellectuals that such voices have not been heard by the outside world.