Musharraf mauls Vajpayee in diplomatic duel

By Mark Tully

(CNN) -- President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan and Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee have both been in America to speak at the United Nations General Assembly, meet President Bush, and drum up support for their differing positions on Afghanistan and on terrorism.

Even in India it's widely believed that Musharraf emerged victorious out of the diplomatic duel, and is now in a strong position to influence decisions about Afghanistan's future.

The sprightly self-confident General Musharraf with his direct, military manner of speech looked a winner all the way against the avuncular Vajpayee speaking in his mannered, hesitant style.

The general had an attacking game plan too, while Vajpayee had nothing except a very tired defence.

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Boosted by the new status he has acquired as a crucial partner in the war against terrorism, Musharraf's tactic was to present himself as the voice of reasonableness.

Vajpayee played right into the general's hands by refusing to meet him while they were both in New York for the United Nations General Assembly, although when he stopped in Moscow on his way to America President Putin warned him that his excuse wouldn't wash.

Vajpayee maintains that Musharraf is promoting cross-border terrorism in Kashmir and there can be no meeting until that stops.

Knowing the international concern about the nuclear status of South Asia Musharraf, in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly, made Vajpayee's plight even worse by offering to discuss "nuclear and missile restraints" with him and speaking of a possible bilateral treaty banning nuclear tests.

As Vajpayee wasn't even prepared to shake hands with Musharraf he had no answer to that one.

Pakistan gains

So what did Musharraf walk away with? A lot of money for a start.

Although some Pakistani commentators have warned that past American promises haven't always materialised an offer of one billion dollars and support for help in reducing Pakistan's debt mountain is a major achievement for a country on the verge of bankruptcy.

The lifting of sanctions imposed after the nuclear explosions will help Pakistan too.

The general's own constituency, the armed forces, will be happy about the relaxation of restrictions on some defence purchases, although they would also like him to have secured a commitment that America will release the twenty four F-16 jet fighters Pakistan has already paid for. They haven't been delivered so far because of congressional concerns about Pakistan's nuclear policy.

The most immediate gain for Musharraf and loss for Vajpayee is that Pakistan's stake in the future of Afghanistan has been acknowledged by President Bush and no price tag has been attached.

Vajpayee strove to get Pakistan condemned for the violence in Kashmir, but all he could get was a commitment that the war on terrorism wouldn't end in Afghanistan.

Guarded statement

Musharraf, in his speech at the United Nations General Assembly, was emboldened by his reception in Washington and New York to turn Vajpayee's argument on it's head and say it was India's refusal to resolve the Kashmir dispute which was causing terrorism.

What's more he even got a guarded statement out of President Bush on a possible American role in that dispute. Third party mediation in Kashmir is anathema to India.

So now with the political future of Afghanistan moving to the top of the agenda the General can expect that his views on the future government of that country will be listened to without any awkward questions being asked about the Kashmiri separatist organisations he is still harbouring.

As for India's demand for a role in deciding the future of Afghanistan, Pakistan is now in a strong position to block that. But even the victorious Musharraf is going to find it hard to persuade President Bush to allow any remnant of the Taliban a place at Afghanistan's high table.