Vajpayee under pressure

By Mark Tully
in India

(CNN) -- Following the daring suicidal attack on India's parl iament on Thursday, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

The leader was tightlipped as he toured the scene on Friday, pleading for patience as the government mulled its response to the attacks that left 12 people, including the five gunmen, dead.

Both houses of parliament were silent as they mourned the death of six security guards and a gardener who was caught in the cross fire during the 30-minute gunbattle.

Parliament was adjourned shortly after and the calls for retribution were loud and many.

Politicians belonging to Vajpayee's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have demanded raids on camps in Pakistan belonging to militant Islamic organizations supporting the separatist movement in Indian administered Kashmir.

That demand is an indication of the pressure on Vajpayee to take dramatic action.

Although he and his ministers have made much of the fact that the police succeeded in shooting the terrorists before they could enter the parliament building the fact that they were able to drive into the grounds is a serious embarrassment.

It is also evidence that in spite of so many assurances about 'beefing up security' even the highest security zones are not safe.

This is particularly embarrassing for Vajpayee because his Right wing Hindu BJP has always promoted itself as they party capable of taking tough action against terrorism.

Vajpayee has just issued a anti-terrorism ordinance and is making much of the opposition's refusal to support its passage through parliament.

In two months time the BJP faces elections to state assemblies and it is hoping to convince the electorate that it alone can be trusted to fight terrorism.

That is to be one of its main planks in the elections whose outcome could be crucial to the survival the coalition Vajpayee heads in Delhi.

'Decisive battle'

Immediately after the attack, Vajpayee acknowledged that a "decisive battle would have to take place" and the cabinet passed a resolution asserting that the government would "liquidate the terrorists and their sponsors wherever they are and whoever they are."

Vajpayee's difficulty is who to fight, where, and how.

He certainly believes the terrorists are sponsored by Pakistan.

But at the same time the prime minister realizes that attacking the camps of the militant Islamic groups in Pakistan would invite retaliation which could well lead to an all out war between the two nuclear countries

So if Vajpayee rejects the option of attacking the camps in Pakistan what alternative does he have?

No action he has taken to implement the brave words said after earlier terrorists attacks has led to any dramatic success.

The only alternative to attacking Pakistan would seem to be a diplomatic battle.

That will mean the Prime Minister putting as much pressure as he can on the international community, and in particular the U.S. to come to his rescue.

He will demand, in the name of U.S. President George W. Bush's war against terrorism everywhere, that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf be told to take action against Islamic groups sponsoring fighting in Kashmir.

Musharraf's dilemma

Musharraf has already distanced Pakistan from the attack.

His government was quick to issue an official statement condemning it "strongly and unequivocally", and he sent a personal message to Vajpayee in which he said he was shocked by the attack.

But later his spokesman, in an interview, suggested that the attack might in fact have been the work of Indian agencies who wanted to build up support for their campaign against Pakistan.

The same allegation has also been made by Syed Salahuddin, chairman of the United Jehadi Council, which is coordinating groups fighting what they call a jihad against India in Kashmir.

He issued his statement from Pakistan Administered Kashmir.

This implausible suggestion designed to distance the Islamic groups as well as Pakistan from the attack on the Indian parliament demonstrates Musharraf's dilemma.

Under present circumstances he can't but condemn terrorism, yet he can't admit that terrorist attacks in India are being made by groups based in his country without taking action against them.

That would weaken the resistance to India in Kashmir and give the Islamic parties in Pakistan more ammunition to use against the military government.

So Musharraf is going to continue with his line that the militant Islamic groups based in Pakistan are not terrorists but freedom fighters.

As for President Bush, he has to answer the question his war has thrown up -- when are terrorists terrorists, and when are they not.

The same question is posed by the crisis in the Middle East.

Vajpayee will undoubtedly ask that question and will remain under pressure to answer it himself if he doesn't get the right answer from the U.S. president.