Filipino mood fluctuates as count continues

By CNN's Maria A. Ressa

A prominent Filipina journalist bemoans the state of her nation. "It's hopeless," she tells CNN, "So many of my friends want to leave the country. It just doesn't change."

In stark contrast, a real-estate developer says: "There's a renewed sense of optimism."

But he quickly revises that, several sentences later, saying, "Well, it's cautious. We have no choice. We have to make it work."

The national tally count -- called canvassing -- began Friday, two days later than planned for crucial mid-term elections in the Philippines.

Vote counting on the precinct and provincial levels, the stages before the national count, took longer than expected and continued to be marred by protests, violence, charges and counter-charges of fraud and cheating.

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Both sides claim victory

Both the party of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and the coalition of parties supported by her predecessor, Joseph Estrada are claiming victory.

Both are accusing the other side of cheating and/or manipulating the counts. Violence continues, especially in the southern Philippines.

Although neither Estrada nor Arroyo ran for office, they have a lot at stake. For Estrada "it's his last-ditch attempt for power," Robert Reyes, a spokesman for Manila archbishop Jaime Cardinal Sin told CNN.

"Even if his senators don't win, he'll try to capture as many of the local and municipal positions so he can get his political machinery in place -- to make sure he has the backing he needs when his court cases go to trial."

Estrada was impeached on corruption charges last November, arrested April 25 on a non-bailable corruption charge and is set to face a slew of court cases, including the charge of economic plunder -- which carries the maximum penalty of death or life in prison.

For Arroyo, these elections can either boost or erode confidence in her government. She came to power last January on the crest of mass protests -- a moral war against corruption, they called it -- largely led by Manila's middle class and elite.

The key question

The Supreme Court affirmed Arroyo's legal right to finish Estrada's term in office -- which ends in 2004 -- but the people never elected her. How much support does she truly have in this factionalized society?

The vote count, which began when polls closed Monday afternoon, has seesawed. Unofficial counts show Arroyo's candidates winning by a slim margin in the crucial race for the Senate.

Early vote counting shows Arroyo's supporters hold a slim lead over backers of former President Joseph Estrada

Surprisingly, Estrada's candidates have done better than expected in the capital. They were expected to vote for the government party.

Estrada's wife, a political novice, seems to have won a sympathy vote and is among the four opposition candidates with a shot at senate seats.

Two others are accused by officials of plotting to overthrow Arroyo at the beginning of this month.

Voters seemed to separate along class lines. Much of Estrada's support came from the urban poor, who believed in the underdog image he cultivated from the roles he played in the movies.

Tens of thousands demonstrated after Estrada was arrested, claiming the government was treating him unfairly. Those protests ended in violence May 1, prompting Arroyo to declare a state of rebellion, which lasted about a week.

Those protests exposed dangerous fracture lines in Philippine society.

Dangerous precedent

First, People Power 2, which brought Arroyo to power, may have set a dangerous precedent.

By installing Arroyo, the Supreme Court weakened democratic institutions it had taken this country 15 years to rebuild.

"Any time people are dissatisfied, they can go out on the streets to depose a President," political analyst Nelson Navarro told CNN.

Second, the legitimate grievances of the urban poor, a silent, marginalized part of Philippine society -- but which make up about nearly 40 percent of the voting population -- can be easily manipulated and ignited and must finally be addressed.

Third and corollary to that, moral wars and mandates against corruption come a very slow second to setting food on the table -- a vital concern to many Filipinos.

More than 25 million people here live below the poverty line, defined as earning less than 31 pesos or about 62 cents a day.

Arroyo seems to have learned her lessons, spending much of the past two weeks addressing the concerns of her country's poor.

Working hard

Certainly, she is putting in the hours. Palace staff say she is working at twice the pace of former President Fidel Ramos, known for his 4 a.m. wakeup calls and rigid work schedule

Arroyo says she lost 20 pounds since she took office four months ago. But no matter how hard she works, it seems almost certain she will face more political battles ahead.

If partial and unofficial results translate into reality, she will have a very slim majority in the Senate, making it difficult for her to pass crucial legislation.

Some analysts point out it may not be so difficult, given how fluid party lines are in the Philippines.

Others say this situation only sets the stage for more corruption, as politicians are persuaded, most likely by pork-barrel funds (discretionary funds), to take the government line.

Certainly, many here are waiting for the court cases against Estrada, who has become a symbol of this government's political will to address corruption. The case for economic plunder is scheduled to be arraigned on June 27.

Moving hard against Estrada will please the middle class and much of the business community. It shows a commitment to creating a level-playing field and the idea that no man is above the law.

But it could once again become a rallying cry for the disenfranchised poor -- if they perceive their hero getting unfair treatment.

President Arroyo has a tough job ahead: to set a direction economically and politically; to unite competing interests and heal the divisions of the past; and, to convince her people there is hope ahead.