Arroyo's 'moral revolution' faces acid test

Arroyo now needs to pursue the high-minded promises she made

By CNN's Maria Ressa

MANILA, Philippines -- When Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was sworn in as her country's new president, she came in, she said, on the wave of "a moral revolution."

She wasn't elected to the office; instead, she took over after then President Joseph Estrada was deposed by "People Power 2" -- a watered-down version of the country's people power revolt in 1986 which deposed a dictator.

Estrada was democratically elected. Yet he was also accused of taking nearly $11 million dollars in payoffs and kickbacks.

To hold him accountable, an impeachment process, with the country's Senate sitting as judges, was set up.

COUNTRY PROFILE At a glance: Philippines Provided by CountryWatch.com    CNN.com Asia More news from our Asia edition

The impeachment trial was televised nationwide: five days a week; six hours a day -- allowing Filipinos to make their own judgments as damaging evidence against Estrada was presented.

Late last year, the Senate voted to suppress what the prosecution claimed was crucial evidence -- and lost its credibility in the eyes of its people.

That triggered the massive protests which eventually led to Estrada's downfall.

Why is all this important? Because Arroyo is now faced with completing the "moral revolution."

Because history repeats itself in the Philippines. Because the same issues must be addressed now as preparations for Estrada's trial continue.

Maximum penalty is death

The same charges against him remain -- except the sum has grown: the former President now has allegedly amassed up to 4 billion pesos or $80 million in illegal wealth during his 31 months in office.

Arroyo's government filed the case against Estrada on April 4, 2001.

The charge is economic plunder, a non-bailable offense which carries the maximum penalty of death.

Near the end of the month, Estrada was arrested and detained -- triggering more protests and a march to Malacanang Palace on May 1 which ended in the worst violence Manila had seen in 15 years.

Arroyo declared a state of rebellion for nearly a week and restored order, but the damage had been done.

Estrada's supporters continue to demand he be treated fairly and given a chance to defend himself in court.

Rainbow coalition

So Arroyo's political will to prosecute Estrada has to be balanced with her goal of unifying a very fractured nation -- not just in terms of popular support but also in terms of the support of the rainbow coalition of politicians who helped bring her to power.

Not everyone wants to see Estrada prosecuted because, of course, he didn't work alone.

On Monday, the Philippine police and military claimed they had uncovered a plot aimed at destabilizing the Arroyo government.

It would use Mr. Estrada's trial as the flashpoint to rally people on the streets, ultimately leading to the assassination of Estrada and Arroyo -- a very similar scenario to what the government claims could have happened on May 1.

All this brings up the question of whether or not this government is stable enough to even try Estrada.

Yet he has become the symbol of this government's will to address issues like corruption.

That is the lynchpin of Mrs. Arroyo's moral revolution. If nothing is done now, what makes this government different from Estrada's?

Estrada's lawyers are very good, and they claim the charge of economic plunder is "unconstitutional and vague."

Ill-gotten wealth

Ironically, Estrada was one of the law's proponents when he was a senator.

It was originally created when the government was struggling with how to recover the ill-gotten wealth of former President Ferdinand Marcos -- estimated by the US Central Intelligence Agency to be between $5 billion to $10 billion.

Now for the first time, that law will be used against one of its creators, but his lawyers seem to be taking a page out of the Marcos lawyers' book: delay.

So far, Estrada's arraignment has been delayed three times; now it has been reset for July 10. Perhaps it will work.

After all, the Philippines has had a less than stellar track record of running after past presidents for money.

Plunder case

Over the past 15 years, some 83 billion pesos or $1.59 billion of the Marcos wealth had been seized or sequestered by the government.

Of that amount, $570 million is held in escrow, awaiting a ruling by an anti-corruption court in the Philippines.

With time, it becomes more and more difficult to convince witnesses to testify and track down evidence.

Certainly, the search for the Marcos wealth has taken a back seat to Estrada's plunder case.

Now Arroyo's statements about a moral revolution will be tested: can she get this case its day in court?