Wahid faces final showdown

Under seige but adamant he can retain power: President Abdurrahman Wahid

By CNN's Maria Ressa

JAKARTA, Indonesia (CNN) -- Merdeka Palace seems an oasis in the bustling Indonesian capital, Jakarta.

Wide-open, manicured lawns, stately-white columns -- oriental birds the only sounds you hear.

Inside, through locked doors, President Abdurrahman Wahid contemplates his future and makes his plans.

I’ve interviewed him many times in the six years I’ve lived in Indonesia.

On the day of our most recent interview, there was nothing unsure about the man.

I’ve never seen him so determined, so directed, so articulate, so confident he has the power of the presidency and the support of the people to help him keep that power.

Wahid’s challenge

He says he will declare a state of emergency on July 20 if legislators do not agree to a compromise.

Everything now hinges on what exactly can and will happen during a special meeting of Indonesia’s highest legislative body, the People’s Consultative Assembly, scheduled to be held on August 1.

Legislators say they expect Wahid to give an “accountability speech.”

Under the 32-year rule of former President Suharto, this happened once every 5 years.

COUNTRY PROFILE At a glance: Indonesia Provided by CountryWatch.com    CNN.com Asia More news from our Asia edition

It is a report given by the country’s leader to his legislators of his accomplishments and failures.

During that time, the report has never been rejected. After all, this was effectively a rubber-stamp legislature.

But in these new times, rejecting an accountability speech means starting an impeachment process, which under Indonesian law remains murky and unclear.

Wahid claims legislators have no right to demand he give an accountability speech.

Yet, legislators claim they have followed a Constitutional process: 2 censures followed by a call for a special session of the Assembly.

They say they expect the President to give that accountability speech in August and to be prepared for whatever decision the Assembly hands down.

Wahid is now offering a compromise. He is urging legislators to prepare a decree outlining an accountability speech for 2004.

“So not a decree on my accountability, but on inputs for an accountability speech at the end of my term in 2004,” he said.

In exchange, he says he wants a written guarantee from at least 4 of 6 major political parties that make up the Assembly saying they will not try to remove him from office prematurely.

Out of touch

Political opponents in Jakarta, including Assembly Speaker Amien Rais, say Wahid is out of touch with reality.

They believe he is now isolated, even from his Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri, who has allegedly refused to meet with him face-to-face for the past few weeks.

Yet, if no compromise is reached by July 20, Wahid says he will declare a state of emergency.

If he has the support of the military and police, Wahid will freeze both Parliament and the Assembly -- in effect, making it impossible for legislators to move against him.

He says that would set the stage for snap elections he plans to hold one year from now.

But what if the military and police do not support him? Well, in effect, Indonesia would have a de facto coup.

What does that mean?

That’s the question that needs to be answered in the week ahead.