Portugal's president set for new term

LISBON, Portugal (Reuters) -- Portuguese President Jorge Sampaio is on target for an easy election victory, a new opinion poll predicts.

Although backing for the 61-year-old socialist slipped slightly from earlier this month, the poll suggested he was still on track to claim 63.5 percent of the votes in Sunday's election.

The poll, carried out by Lisbon's Catholic University for the Publico newspaper and state RTP television, gave conservative rival Joaquim Ferreira do Amaral 29.1 percent with three left-wing candidates well behind.

Sampaio is seeking a final five-year term and needs 50 percent plus one vote to avoid a run-off with his nearest challenger next month.

His support stood at 68 percent in a University poll at the start of January.

The latest poll, in which 4,655 people were asked to cast a secret ballot between January 6-10, also took no account of the surprise decision of communist candidate Antonio Abreu to break with tradition and remain in the race.

Portugal's communists normally take advantage of the television campaign time and then drop out in favour of the socialist candidate days before the election.

Analysts said that while Abreu could boost his support from the 2.4 percent he was given in the latest poll, it was unlikely to approach the seven to eight percent that the communists achieve in parliamentary elections.

The communists vote would not be enough to put in doubt outright victory for Sampaio on Sunday.

Political analysts say that the greatest threat that Sampaio faces is from abstentions, which do not affect the result but could cast a pall over his presidency if the level were very high.

Voter turnout is normally around 65-70 percent but some observers are predicting it could drop below 50 percent for the first time since Portugal returned to democracy in 1974.

Aware of the danger, Sampaio has hammered away at the need for people to turn out to vote.

The Portuguese presidency is largely ceremonial, but the president can mediate in times of crisis and his word on political matters influences public opinion.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Presidency of the Portuguese Republic

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