Chris Burns: Update on ‘final offensive’ in Macedonia

Chris Burns

The Macedonian government has suspended their bombardment of Albanian rebels until midnight Wednesday, March 21. If the rebels do not lay down their arms, the government said it will resume its offensive sometime after midnight.

Q: What provoked this latest round of fighting?

Burns:The governing Macedonian coalition say it began on the morning of last Wednesday when the rebels attacked a police checkpoint in the hills above Tetovo. The attack happened at the same time there was a demonstration in Tetovo, organized by an opposition Albanian party, to demand more rights for ethnic Albanians.

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There is one Albanian party in the governing coalition. However, the opposition Prosperity and Democracy Party is not part of the government. It is a much more radical group, much more critical of the government, and is demanding quicker reform than the government is providing. It says that the government is not moving fast enough to provide more rights for ethnic Albanians. Protestors at the demonstration were cheering the rebels as they were shooting it out on the hill.

Remember, there has been a dispute between Albanians and Macedonians for years and Albanians have been demanding more rights. In some ways, these rebels bolstered these aspirations.

Q: Has Macedonia given a time scale for the 'final offensive'?

Burns: No. But they want to do this as quickly as possible. To them, it is a race against time. If this drags on, the government fears that the country will polarize further, that the split between Macedonians and Albanians will become much more dangerous, and that this could become a civil conflict, which it is not at this time. Keep in mind that this is a typical Balkan tinderbox where you have two ethnicities that have been rivals for a long time.

Q: What are the implications for NATO troops across the border in Kosovo?

Burns: It is believed that at least some of the rebels come from over the border in Kosovo. As a result, KFOR has been called on by Macedonia to boost its patrols. It has done that to some extent, but apparently the rebels still have been able to cross. Yesterday, NATO said it was going to send hundreds more troops to the border in an effort to seal it. Keep in mind that the border area involves the American Sector and the German Sector of Kosovo, and that there are 5,000 American troops in the American Sector.

The problem with sealing this border is that the area is very rugged, mountainous, and foggy. These rebels have been very successful in crossing through it. On the other hand, a large number of the rebels are local Macedonia Albanians, mainly from the mountains; exactly what percent is difficult to say. This is something that KFOR cannot control because its mandate is strictly inside Kosovo.

Another problem that ties KFOR’s hands is that the rules of engagement limit them to protecting themselves and protecting anyone who is threatened. This does not allow KFOR to hunt down rebels. That is one argument that Macedonia is making -- they want NATO to become much more aggressive. The danger is that if KFOR starts hunting rebels, there could be conflicts with rebels inside Kosovo.

Q: What are the problems of fighting small groups of rebels in this sort of terrain?

Burns: The problems are the nature of the battle. These rebels are guerrillas who can strike, run and hide. To fight them with a conventional police and army is very difficult. Second, the terrain is mountainous and rugged, making it very difficult to operate an offensive. Three, the rebels dominate the heights right now; they dominate the mountain. Four, it is believed the rebels are using tunnels, some of them linked to an old Ottoman fort, in effect, using medieval techniques to fight the security forces. One other thing, the government armed forces have very old equipment. Their tanks are old Soviet T52s, among other aging former Soviet equipment, and their army is estimated at only 15,000 troops who have little or no counter insurgency training.

Q: Do we know the number of forces that each side has?

Burns: The government estimates the rebels number up to 500 in the mountains around Tetovo. Until this large scale offensive, there were 300 to 400 police in the operation, but the government will not give the number of troops involved now. The rebels claim they have at least one thousand in the hills there, but there is no way to confirm this independently, of course. Keep in mind too that there are other border areas, the northern Macedonia where clashes have been going on for weeks where rebels have been launching attacks, and those rebels believe to number in the hundreds. The deal was the government thought it was getting this under control. They were pushing rebels out of villages along the border. This attack in the country’s second largest came as a complete surprise.

Q: What does this fighting mean for the rest of the former Yugoslavia?

Burns: If the fighting continues, it can increase tensions within former Yugoslav republics that are near Kosovo province. Officials here to do not see a wider Balkan war, but there is danger of peaceful inter-ethnic relations unraveling in different republics. The Macedonian Government wants to end this before the situation becomes a civil conflict.

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Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
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United Nations
Macedonian Government

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